China on the way to 100% pork self-sufficiency

The national herd of pigs this year could reach 504 million heads, according to a Polish market analyst. In a tweet, Jacek Strzelecki notes: “Pork production in CHINA is as follows: in 2021, the pork self-sufficiency rate reached 96%; In 2022, this figure will grow to 100%, in 2023 - to 102%. The number of pigs in China in 2022 is projected at 504 million heads, and by 2023 it may increase to 554 million.”

The analyst points to a decline in Chinese MEAT imports in 2021 , especially pork, and last year's pork meat production is only slightly lower than before the pre-ASF crisis. China will not be allowed to EXPORT pork to other countries as ASF is still present on farms, but this will drastically reduce pork imports. The effect will be felt by major players such as Brazil, Spain, the US and CANADA, but pork exports to Asia will remain attractive as countries such as Vietnam, the Philippines, SOUTH KOREA or Japan continue to import pork due to the lack of animal protein in their markets , but providers may be from different regions. For example, in the Vietnamese market, RUSSIAis the main supplier of pork, covering more than 30% of pork imports, and Miratorg is the main supplier of Russian pork in this market (3,200 tons delivered last year). Currently, the US is the only major player in the world market to announce a reduction in the national pig herd, and it is likely that some of the volumes exported over the past two years to China will remain in the domestic market. The EU is already facing an oversupply of pork, which means the average pork price will fall further.