VEB.RF: 2023 will be the year of economic reconfiguration

In the past two years, the world has been living in a situation of high uncertainty, the expert noted. The US and the Eurozone, especially Germany, experienced a downturn in economic performance in the second half of 2022, which is likely to continue this year. The only question is how strong it will be. The economic situation in these territories will affect the world prices of all raw materials: oil, metals, as well as the level of interest rates. The latter have been on the rise until recently and may continue to grow in the foreseeable future. “This will help strengthen the DOLLAR, respectively, depreciate the ruble,” Klepach said.

According to VEB.RF forecasts, the United States cannot avoid an economic recession this year, although in 2024 its growth, according to the IMF forecast, will accelerate. The economic situation in the Eurozone, especially in Germany, will be even more tense than in the US. At the same time, the economy of CHINA and India began to recover. According to the results of the next year, Klepach believes that the first one will grow in terms of economic indicators by 5%, the second - by 6% or more. “However, China and India are sensitive not only to prices, but also to the situation with world trade, recession in other countries,” he added.

World oil prices are falling from record levels that were observed until recently. At the same time, last year was unique for RUSSIA in terms of trade in this resource. “Despite all the embargoes imposed on the sea delivery of oil, we did not reduce, but increased its supplies to record levels, which significantly supported the Russian economy and budget,” Klepach said.

With gas, the situation is different. Its EXPORT volumes from Russia fell, while prices were at record highs. “Despite the downward trend in oil and gas prices, there is hope that in the autumn-winter of this year Europe will increase purchases of Russian gas to fill its storage facilities - for this, according to various estimates, it needs 30-60 billion cubic meters,” Klepach said. . “Oil prices will also rise. All this will contribute to higher prices for agricultural products.”

Ukraine, including thanks to the “grain deal”, this season remains a significant participant in world trade. According to the results of the season, VEB.RF predicts its grain supplies to foreign markets at the level of 50 million tons, oilseeds - more than 10 million tons. agricultural crops will decrease,” Klepach believes.

The expert drew attention to the fact that the oil and gas market has changed dramatically. In 2021, 115 million tons of oil - almost half of the volume of exports - Russia sold to Europe. India is now the main buyer of Russian oil. Already this year, a decline in oil production and exports is expected. A reduction in gas supplies is also predicted. In 2021, our country sold 204 billion cubic meters, of which 130 billion cubic meters were delivered to Europe. This year, Klepach predicts, gas sales there will drop to 30 billion cubic meters.

At the same time, investments in various sectors of industry in Russia did not fall last year, but grew by 2.7%, the expert noted. “It’s hard to say what will happen this year. The official forecast, which was announced by the government, is a drop in investment by 1% at the end of the year. However, I believe that their reduction may be more significant,” he argues.

While the economic performance of the oil and gas industry will decline, the performance of enterprises engaged in mechanical engineering, including agriculture, will grow, although they will not block the decline in other sectors of the economy. “If production was pulling out last year, this year it will decline, but the manufacturing sector, where there was a failure in 2022, will grow,” Klepach believes.

The fall in incomes of the population of Russia last year was less than previously expected - previously, it amounted to 1%. “This is the result of the support measures taken by the government: payments to mobilized families with many children, an increase in monetary allowance,” explained the chief economist of VEB.RF. Further, the incomes of the population will increase, according to the results of the current year, real disposable incomes may add 1.5%. “At the same time, incomes are growing faster than consumer demand. Last year, in retail, it fell by 6.7%, this year it will rise, but more slowly than income: consumers have become more cautious, making more savings, ”explained Klepach. However, the latest population census showed an increase in the population of Russia by almost 2 million people, including due to migrants and refugees from the Donbass, he recalled,