USA: production, export and analysis of the global pork market

In the Livestock and Poultry: Global Markets and Trade report released in mid-October, USDA analysts said global pork production in 2024 is expected to “remain essentially unchanged at 115.5 million tons.” Declines in production in the EU and CHINA will be offset by slight increases in production in Brazil, Vietnam and the US.

Specifically, US production is projected to be 2% higher in 2024 compared to 2023. This is due to a significant increase in piglet production. Lower feed costs also play a role, making pork prices more competitive with other meats.

U.S. pork exports are forecast to increase 3% in 2024, “driven by strong demand from CANADA, the Philippines and SOUTH KOREA, as well as increased market share from the EU in China and Australia.”

Looking at total global pork exports, shipments are forecast to increase 2% to 10.4 million tonnes in 2024 as Brazil's exports continue to gain market share from EU and US pork products, especially in Japanese and Mexican markets.

In 2024, EU pork exports are “expected to be down 25% from 2019,” according to the USDA. In addition to the growing regulatory burden, EU pork producers continue to face challenges.” USDA analysts add that “EU veterinary medicine regulations, as well as upcoming animal welfare legislation , have created uncertainty for producers, disincentivized investment, and increased production costs.”

The USDA expects Brazilian pork production to increase 5% in 2024 as pork prices reflect increases in a number of Brazil's existing EXPORT markets: Mexico, Singapore and the Dominican Republic. In addition, input costs in Brazil are expected to decline, leading to improved profitability for producers.

In Vietnam, pork production is also likely to increase by 5% due to increased domestic demand. This is the result of economic recovery after the pandemic. Efficiency gains are also expected “through investment and industry consolidation.”

China's pork production will fall 1% with weak domestic demand through most of 2023. This may be due to the recent economic downturn in China, which is making pork an expense that some families can afford less frequently. However, on October 18 , REUTERS reported that " China's economy grew faster than expected in the third quarter." Consumption and industrial activity also surprised gains in September, suggesting the recent flurry of policy measures is helping to support a tentative economic recovery."