Rabobank: Weaker economy affects global pork consumption

While Rabobank expects a modest improvement in operating costs in 2023, local conditions will vary and risk management will continue to be critical to success. World stocks of raw materials are at historically low levels and availability remains limited. A disappointing crop in Argentina will partly offset Brazil's record soybean crop in 2023, while tight global stocks of grains and oilseeds are expected to cause additional feed price volatility in 2023.

North America: US and Canadian pork exports remain competitive in key markets, but hog production growth will slow as consumption declines. Losses are growing.

Europe: Pig supply in Europe is expected to remain tight in the second quarter. Meanwhile, producer margins are recovering thanks to historically high hog prices.

China: Prices declined due to weak demand and additional losses due to African swine fever. Production is expected to contract at the end of the second and third quarters, pushing up prices as demand begins to recover.

Brazil: Exports continue to grow strongly and expectations of lower feed prices improve profitability prospects for producers.

Southeast Asia: African swine fever remains a problem in the region. Therefore, slow growth is expected in 2023.

Japan: Demand for pork will be lower in the second quarter, with pork imports from Europe expected to decline due to high prices and large stocks.