FAO Forecast: Meat production, trade and prices in 2023

Global mutton production is also expected to rise in Asia and Oceania. On the contrary, global pork production is expected to decline slightly (-0.5%) to 121.7 million tons, mainly due to a sharp drop in production in Europe due to the ongoing impact of the African swine fever virus, reducing the profitability of producers. and slightly lower domestic demand. World beef production is also projected to decline slightly due to declining cattle numbers, high feed costs, forage shortages and declining carcass weights in several leading producing regions, despite some increases in other regions.

Global trade in MEAT and meat products is projected to reach 42 million tonnes in 2023, only slightly above 2022 levels. This modest growth is underpinned by expectations of an increase in imports along with an increase in catering sales, especially in CHINA, following the lifting of restrictions in the country related to the covid-19 pandemic . However, increased supply from domestic sources and reduced purchasing power of consumers amid high food pricesand the economic downturn could lead to lower imports in most meat-importing countries, partly offsetting projected growth. Much of the expected increased demand is likely to come from Brazil and Australia, supported by high availability of EXPORT supplies, absence of disease and competitive prices .

Since hitting a record high in June 2022, international meat prices have been on a downward trend in the second half of last year, reflecting increased export availability in some of the top exporting countries amid lower import demand for spot supplies. However, the FAO Meat Price Index has rebounded since February 2023, driven mainly by pork and beef prices amid supply constraints and, more recently, rising poultry prices due to strong demand.