В ЦБ предсказали возврат экономики к докризисному уровню через три года

The Central Bank predicted the return of the economy to pre-crisis levels in three years Structural adaptation is a 'long process', he warned

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Deputy Chairman of the Central Bank Alexei Zabotkin in an interview with RBC estimated the timing of the return of the Russian economy to the pre-crisis level.

“If the economy develops near the upper range of our October baseline forecast, then we will return to 2021 levels sometime in 2025. If we compare the consequences of a structural shift, a structural decline in potential and a cyclical downturn, then it is much more difficult for an economy to overcome a structural decline in potential than it is to recover from a cyclical downturn. We had a cyclical downturn in 2020. With a very active counter-cyclical policy from the monetary policy [monetary policy] and the budget, this decline was fully offset - even more than offset - in 2021. Structural adaptation is a longer process, so it will take longer,” Zabotkin said.

Putin predicted a decline in GDP at the end of the year by 2,5% Politics

The influence of the world economy on the Russian economy remains significant. “We are still a very open economy. There are restrictions on imports, but the same physical volumes of exports and the prices of our exports are highly dependent on world conditions. And, as we can see, prices for some commodities have declined markedly over the past few months, following a decline in global growth expectations,” Zabotkin added.

The HEAD of the ACRA agency, the former deputy chairman of the Central Bank, Mikhail Sukhov, said earlier in an interview with RBC that the deadline for the economy to reach the pre-pandemic level (that is, until 2019, and not until 2022) "is beyond the five-year forecast." All this time there will be a fundamental transformation of the economy under the influence of sanctions, he noted.

According to the forecast of analysts surveyed by the Central Bank in December, GDP will fall by 2.9-3.5% in 2022, by 2.1-2.4% in 2023, and will grow by 1.5% in the next two years. % annually. The Central Bank itself in its October forecast predicted a fall of 3-3.5% this year. According to the expectations of the Ministry of Economic Development, in 2022 the decline in GDP will be no more than 2.9%, but recovery growth will begin in the first quarter of 2023. As a result, the negative dynamics in 2023 (minus 0.8%) will be mainly due to the high base effect of the first quarter of the previous year.

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