AI, what's next? Final issue of the RBC newspaper

Here is the final issue of the RBC newspaper for 2023. Unlike previous years, we decided to devote it not to the results of the outgoing year, but to forecasts for the near future, moreover, generated by Russian artificial intelligence systems

The project participants included five such systems from leading Russian players in different fields - Sberbank, Tinkoff, Yandex, MTS and the National Research University Higher School of Economics , who gave their answers to questions prepared by the editors - from inflation and price expectations, the dynamics of the national economy, the state of the labor market to the situation in the field of culture and the average annual temperature. The forecasts turned out to be varied. We designated their authorship with system logos; Somewhere it was considered necessary to provide additional data relating to 2023 or a wider period.

Of course, the editors participated in the processing of information received from AI systems - they went through editing, proofreading and everything that is required when preparing publications, but in no case semantic editing. So, as is customary to say in such cases, the opinion of the authors may not coincide with the opinion of the editors.

Happy New Year!

What will the key rate be in 2024 ?

MTS AI:

“The projected range of the key rate of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation will be from 12.5 to 14%. The Bank of RUSSIA plans to maintain an increased key rate for several months or even longer in order to stabilize the national currency and prevent further price increases. In addition, the decrease in the value of the ruble against the US DOLLAR is expected to have a positive impact on the country's economy through increased exports of goods and services. However, adaptive mechanisms may not be effective enough in the event of a sharp change in external conditions, such as a strengthening of the US dollar or rising prices foroil . Therefore, it is predicted that the key rate will remain high until the summer of 2024, when it should gradually decrease under the influence of adaptation of economic mechanisms.”

What happened to the key rate in 2023

Russia has a tight monetary policy again - after ten months of keeping the rate at a historically low level of 7.5%, in July the Central Bank decided that it was time to change the trajectory. There were reasons for this, and one of the most memorable was the ruble exchange rate, which reached the level of 100 not only for the euro, but on certain days for the dollar . The ruble exchange rate in Russia is floating, and the Central Bank does not set official targets for it (although no one has canceled the “psychological marks” for the authorities - as a result, the authorities avoided a three-digit dollar exchange rate, including through the mandatory sale of foreign currency earnings of exporters). However, ultimately it affects the price level - and it does so more and more, given that imports to Russia have recovered after the failure of 2022 (in many ways, its fall was the reason for the ruble being too strong - despite the sanctions). The Central Bank's goal is inflation of 4%, and by July price growth became higher and has not yet reversed.

The regulator tried to act gradually and initially increased the rate by only 1 percentage point. Then he had to hurry up and sharply raise it to 12% at an unscheduled meeting. This also turned out to be not enough, and by December the figure rose to 16%. “Yes, looking back, we understand that monetary policy was soft and it was necessary to raise the rate earlier,” admits Elvira Nabiullina in a conversation with RBC. For example, in the spring, she adds.

The Central Bank's delay will be compensated by the duration of the period of high rates in the economy. Unlike the situations in 2014 and 2022, when he sharply raised the rate, but soon moved to lower it, this time it will remain at an elevated level for a long time, Nabiullina warned. The regulator wants to return the rate of price growth to 4–4.5% already in 2024, but this year ends with inflation around 7.5%. And rising prices for eggs are far from the only reason, warns Nabiullina.

How much will GDP grow in 2024?

How GDP forecasts changed in 2023

Already in December 2022, First Deputy Prime Minister Andrei Belousov admitted that near-zero GDP dynamics were possible in 2023. At that time, against the backdrop of tough sanctions and broken supply chains, this was perceived quite optimistically (with the official forecast of the Ministry of Economic Development then in effect - minus 0.8%). And in January 2023, the International Monetary Fund unexpectedly revised its forecast for changes in Russia’s GDP from minus 2.3% to plus 0.3%. “Probably, any improvement in the forecast in this case reflects a statement of the fact that sanctions , primarily trade ones, did not work very well,” Sofya Donets, an economist at Renaissance Capital, commented to RBC.

Subsequently, forecasts for the Russian economy were revised only upward. In April, the Ministry of Economic Development released a forecast that GDP in 2023 will grow by 1.2%. Moreover, back then the department expected a modest increase in investment for the year (by only 0.5%), but as a result, the rapid growth of capital investment became one of the main surprises: over the nine months of 2023, investment in fixed assets in the country increased by 10% compared to the same period a year ago. The growth of real wages was also higher (7.4% for January-September).

In November, Economy Minister Maxim Reshetnikov said that GDP would increase by 3%. And already in December, President Vladimir Putin said that economic growth at the end of the year would reach 3.5%. Since February 2022, the Russian economy has “adapted to dramatic changes with amazing speed,” The New York Times admitted in the fall. But she noted that not everything is so smooth: the Bank of Russia was forced to sharply raise the key rate to curb inflation, daily food products in stores have increased significantly in price.

What will inflation be in 2024?

MTS AI:

“The inflation forecast in Russia for 2024 is about 5%. Inflation is being held back by measures taken by the Russian Central Bank to combat rising prices, while growth in consumer spending remains low. In addition, global economic growth is slowing, raising the cost of imported goods. These factors help stabilize inflation in the country.”

How inflation forecasts changed in 2023

While GDP growth in 2023 ended up being much better than initially expected, the opposite picture emerged for inflation. Until the beginning of summer, the authorities still expected to keep the consumer price index within 5.3% for the year. However, with the sharp weakening of the ruble against the dollar (in August the rate exceeded 100 rubles per dollar), this task became impossible.

In September, when preparing the draft federal budget for the next period, the Ministry of Economic Development set the basic inflation forecast for the end of 2023 at 7.5%. In December, Putin said consumer price growth would likely be closer to 8%. Over the 11 months of 2023, the prices for bananas (plus 45%), pears, oranges, tomatoes (43–44%) increased the most ; chicken eggs rose in price by 36.5%, and chickens by 30%.

How much will oil cost in 2024?

MTS AI:

“In 2024, according to this context, the average oil price will be around $93–103 per barrel (depending on the scenario). It is expected that global oil supplies will continue to grow, while demand for it will remain unchanged. Oil prices will also be affected by geopolitical factors such as conflicts or trade restrictions between key regions of the world. In addition, there may be a decrease in global supplies due to reduced production or rising raw material prices.”

What happened to oil prices in 2023

At the beginning of 2023, the price of the nearest futures contract on the British ICE exchange for Brent oil was $80.72 per barrel. In mid-March, Brent prices fell below $72 per barrel, but in early April they exceeded $80 per barrel. Against the backdrop of high volatility, a number of OPEC+ countries, including Russia and Saudi Arabia, announced an additional reduction in oil production by October 2022 to stabilize the market (then OPEC+ reduced quotas by 2 million barrels per day to the level of August 2022). The total additional reduction amounted to approximately 1.66 million barrels. per day, including 500 thousand barrels. per day from Russia, which announced this back in February. The stabilization of prices was short-lived, and already on May 4, following trading results, the price of Brent reached its minimum for 2023, $70.57 per barrel.

In June, OPEC+ extended the main agreements, reducing the level of quotas by 1.4 million barrels. per day, up to 40.46 million barrels. per day for 2024, and Saudi Arabia announced a voluntary reduction in production by another 1 million barrels. per day, which the country later extended until the end of this year. In early July, Russia decided to reduce oil exports by 500 thousand barrels. per day in August (from September it amounted to 300 thousand). Oil prices began to rise rapidly in July and on September 14, based on trading results, they reached a maximum of $91.17 per barrel for the year.

In October, against the backdrop of increased production in countries outside OPEC+, mainly in the usa and Brazil, the price of Brent began to decline, and the OPEC/OPEC+ meeting on November 30 failed to stabilize prices. In the first half of December, prices dropped below $75 per barrel. By December 22, after the suspension of transportation through the Red Sea, including the British energy company BP, amid the actions of the Houthis, oil prices almost returned to the levels at the beginning of the year - they rose to $79.19 per barrel (23:46 Moscow time).

The average price of Urals, according to the Ministry of Finance, for December 15, 2022 - January 14, 2023 was $46.82 per barrel. After the introduction of a price ceiling for Russian oil in December last year, the Urals discount to the North Sea Dated standard grew to $35–40 per barrel. But by August, amid stabilization of Russian exports, especially to Asian countries, they fell to about $15 per barrel. In October, the discount fell to its lowest levels for this year, below $10 per barrel, but in the period from November 15 to December 14 it amounted to $12.77 with an average Urals price of $66.12.

How many robots will there be in the world in 2024?

In which sectors of the Russian economy will wages increase the most in 2024?

MTS AI:

“The sectors of the Russian economy where wages are most likely to rise next year include information technology ( IT ), healthcare, education, agriculture , government services, research and development, military units, courier services and transportation. These industries are expected to see significant wage increases due to rising productivity, competition from other countries and increased employer demands. The wage increases will affect a variety of job categories, from computer programmers to truck drivers, who could see a significant change in income levels after the increase. In addition, some logistics, transportation and warehousing jobs will also see their wages rise sharply due to rising transportation and delivery costs.”

GigaChat (to answer this question, GigaChat was given a “scenario” - a financial analyst who describes 2024 from the future):

“In 2024, wages in Russia increased in various sectors of the economy. The most noticeable growth was recorded in the following industries:

information Technology. This industry continues to be one of the most dynamically developing in Russia. Salaries of IT specialists increased by 10–20% depending on skill level; medicine and healthcare. In 2024, salaries for medical workers will increase by 15–25%. This is due to increased accessibility of medical services and increased financing of the healthcare system; finance and insurance. Salaries in this industry increased by 10–15%. This is due to the growth of investments and the active development of financial services in Russia; production and industry. In 2024, wages for manufacturing workers increased by 10–20%. This is due to an increase in production volumes and growing demand for industrial products; education. Salaries of teachers and professors increased by 10–15%. This is due to improving the quality of education and improving working conditions in this area.”

What will be the average salary in Moscow in 2024

From which countries will labor migrants come to Russia in 2024?

How many people will be born in 2024 in Russia

MTS AI:

“Forecasts show that Russia's population will continue to decline over the next few decades. In 2024, the population is estimated to decline by about 5%. The decline in fertility is due to many factors, including a decrease in the number of women of reproductive age, increasing life expectancy and an aging population. In addition, it occurs in many countries around the world, such as CHINA , India and Brazil."

ETNA:

“We predict a decline in the number of children born per 100 people of the population by 2–3%.”

How many people will get sick with covid-19 in 2024?

MTS AI:

“In 2024, according to the data provided, the number of cases of COVID-19 will decrease due to improved immunity in people and a decrease in the frequency of new outbreaks of the disease. This will lead to the disease moving into the category of seasonal influenza or ARVI. The peak incidence is expected to occur between January and March next year. After this, the incidence rate will begin to gradually fall until it completely disappears by the end of the decade.”

How much will the dollar be worth in 2024?

MTS AI:

“The dollar exchange rate against the ruble exchange rate will be approximately 90 rubles. in the second half of 2024, reaching the level of 100 rubles. at the end of the year. A reduction in the key rate of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation will also have a positive impact on the strengthening of the ruble, as it contributes to increased investment in the country's economy and a reduction in inflation. In addition, lower unemployment and increased foreign investment will support economic growth. Despite these factors, the Russian currency is forecast to weaken due to increased economic sanctions from the West and lower global oil prices.”

How much will the yuan be worth in 2024?

MTS AI:

“The projected exchange rate will be about 13–14 rubles. for 1 yuan. The Chinese currency is expected to continue to rise in value over the next few years as China's economy continues to grow at a strong pace and demand for Chinese products increases around the world. However, there is a possibility that fluctuations in oil prices and political differences will lead to currency fluctuations, especially if they are related to the strategic interests of individual players. In addition, the risk of increased international tensions and economic shocks, such as slowing global trade growth and the global financial crisis , must be considered . These events may lead to a decline in the RMB/RUB exchange rate. However, the long-term trend of yuan appreciation will continue as the country seeks to strengthen its currency and expand its international position.”

GigaChat:

“Based on the data provided, we can conclude that the yuan to ruble exchange rate in 2024 will be in the range from 10.0016 to 13.8926 rubles. for 1 yuan."

How many companies in the world will use digital currency in 2024

Investments in which sectors of the Russian economy will be the most profitable in 2024

MTS AI:

“The most promising sectors of the Russian economy are information technology (IT), healthcare and the automotive industry. It is expected that investments in them will amount to 1 trillion, 0.5 trillion and 0.3 trillion rubles. per year accordingly. These three areas are the main drivers of the country's technological progress, so investing in them will have a significant impact on the Russian economy over the next few years. In addition, the healthcare sector and the automotive industry have the potential to become important industries of the future, as they contribute to job creation and improve the quality of life of the population. Thus, we can expect a significant influx of investment in these sectors in the coming years.”

GigaChat:

“In 2024, Russia will continue to develop the following sectors of the economy:

oil and gas sector - Russia is one of the largest producers of oil and gas in the world, so investments in this sector can bring high profits; electronics industry - Russia is actively developing its electronics industry, which creates new opportunities for investors; information technology - Russian IT companies are becoming more and more competitive in the global market, so investments in this industry can also be promising; tourism - Russia has enormous potential for the development of tourism due to its unique nature and cultural attractions; agro-industrial complex - Russia is the largest grain producer in the world, and also has great potential for the development of livestock farming and food production.”

Which technological areas will develop most intensively in 2024?

Which travel destinations in Russia will be the most popular among Russians in 2024

What will be the length of roads in Russia in 2024*

ETNA:

“The length of public roads is 1,575.6 thousand km; the length of public roads with hard surfaces is 1,115 thousand km.”

What car brands will be the most popular among Russians in 2024

How many Russians will visit domestic museums in 2024

How many square meters of housing will be built

ETNA:

“The projected growth for multi-apartment buildings is 11%, 56 million square meters will be built in 2024. m of housing; the predicted decline for individual housing is 1%; in 2024, 54 million square meters will be built. m of housing."

How much will a kilogram of buckwheat cost in 2024?

MTS AI

The answer contains a wholesale price forecast: “The projected price level per kilogram of buckwheat will be about 50 rubles. This is due to a decrease in harvest volume due to unfavorable natural conditions and an increase in production costs. "In addition, this could lead to higher prices for other food products , such as SUGAR , which is also used in the production of buckwheat."

How will ALCOHOL consumption per capita change in Russia in 2024?

GigaChat:

«Как финансовый аналитик я могу предположить, что потребление алкоголя на душу населения в России в 2024 году может продолжить снижаться. Это может быть связано с несколькими факторами, такими как изменение потребительских привычек, повышение цен на алкогольные напитки, меры государственной политики по борьбе с алкогольной зависимостью, и другими факторами».

Какой будет средняя температура воздуха в России

GigaChat:

«Если настоящего изменения климата в России не будет, то можно предположить, что среднегодовая температура воздуха в 2024 году будет выше, чем сейчас, но ниже, чем 100 лет назад.

Сейчас среднегодовая температура воздуха в России составляет минус 5,5 градуса. Для 1914 года в сводке погоды по Центральному району России указывалась средняя годовая температура минус 10 градусов. При этом, по данным Росгидромета, к 2030-м годам ожидается потепление в пределах 1,5–2 градусов по сравнению с 2020 годом.

Таким образом, прогнозируемая среднегодовая температура воздуха в России в 2024 году может быть от минус 3,5 до 0 градусов».

Meteum (прогноз погоды дан с января по апрель 2024 года):

“In Moscow, the average temperature in the first month of 2024 will be minus 6 degrees, which is 1 degree warmer than the average over the last 30 years, and 0.6 degrees cooler than last year’s figures. The expected precipitation in January is 51 mm. This is 10% more than the climate norm, and compared to 2023 data, this figure will increase by 42%. February will also not be frosty: the average temperature for the month will be minus 6.3 degrees – 0.5 degrees above the 30-year norm and 1.6 degrees below last year’s figures. The predicted precipitation amount is 46 mm, which is 16% higher than the 2023 figures. In March in Moscow, the average temperature compared to last year will drop by 1.1 degrees and amount to minus 0.7 degrees, and the amount of precipitation will reach 44 mm, which is 9% more than the norm and 44% less than last year’s data. April will be 1.6 degrees cooler than last year, the average temperature is forecast at 7.3 degrees. The amount of precipitation will be 50 mm, which is 16% more than in 2023 and 14% above the climate norm. In St. Petersburg, the average temperature in January will be minus 4.8 degrees. The temperature anomaly relative to the climate during this period is 0.9 degrees. The expected amount of precipitation is 54 mm. This is 8% more than normal, and compared to last year this figure will decrease by 15%. In the third month of winter, the temperature will be minus 5.5 degrees, which is 0.5 degrees higher than the data of the last 30 years and 1.6 degrees lower than last year's data, and the amount of precipitation will be 45 mm. In March in St. Petersburg, the average temperature will be minus 1.2 degrees, and the amount of precipitation will be at the February level, which is 7% more than the climate norm. In April, the expected average temperature is 5.1 degrees, with precipitation of 47 mm, which is 136% higher than the figures for 2023. Weather indicators in Vladivostok will deviate slightly from the climate norm. In December, the average temperature will be minus 6.5 degrees, and the amount of precipitation will reach 19 mm. 2024 will begin with an abnormally warm January - the average temperature here will reach minus 9.2 degrees with 18 mm of precipitation. The last month of winter for Vladivostok residents will also become a little warmer - the average temperature is expected to be minus 6.2 degrees, and the amount of precipitation will be 19 mm. With the arrival of spring, residents of Vladivostok will experience warming temperatures and heavy rainfall: in March the thermometer will rise to minus 0.2 degrees, and the amount of precipitation will increase to 34 mm; in April the air will warm up to 5 degrees, the amount of precipitation will be 50 mm. January in KrasnodarIt will be twice as cool, with a temperature of 1.9 degrees, with 79 mm of precipitation expected. The last month of winter will also be accompanied by a positive temperature of 2.8 degrees and precipitation of 64 mm. In March and April, the air will warm up to 6.9 and 12.6 degrees, respectively, and the amount of precipitation will remain approximately at the same level - 72 and 62 mm. December temperatures in Nizhny Novgorod will be higher than usual and will be minus 5.2 degrees. Precipitation is expected to be 58 mm. January and February will be similar in temperature - minus 7.9 and 7.7 degrees, respectively. The thermometer in March will reach minus 1.6 degrees, and precipitation will amount to 43 mm. April will be significantly warmer and promises an increase in temperature to 6.8 degrees, and the amount of precipitation will be 49 mm. In Kazan, temperatures for the entire forecast period will remain within the 30-year norm. In January, the temperature will be minus 9.5 degrees, and the amount of precipitation will be 53 mm, which is a slight deviation from the norm. The expected average temperature in February is minus 9.7 degrees, and precipitation will be 44 mm. In the first month of spring, the temperature will be minus 3.1 degrees, and the predicted amount of precipitation will be 47 mm. April will be colder than the same period last year: the average temperature will be 6.1 degrees, and precipitation will be 45 mm, which is three times more than in 2023.”

What are the AI ​​systems involved in preparing the forecasts?

GigaChat

In April 2023, Sber presented its own version of the GigaChat multimodal neural network. At that time, the service was in closed beta mode. GigaChat is capable of answering user questions, maintaining dialogue, generating code, and generating text and images based on provided descriptions within a shared context. The model understands the Russian language, and its image generation function is from Kandinsky, another neural network of the company. Unlike the foreign analogue of ChatGPT, artificial intelligence from Sber initially supports multimodal interaction and has better communication ability in Russian, the developers say. In September 2023, Sber provided access to the generative artificial intelligence GigaChat for everyone.

ETNA

In December 2021, Tinkoff introduced ETNA, an AI service that allows you to analyze and predict processes based on data, ranging from the amount of precipitation in the coming winter to the company's needs for hiring new employees. ETNA is an open-source service. Analysis, hypothesis testing and forecasting are carried out based on data uploaded by the user, as well as information from publicly available sources. For example, you can use ETNA to track the factors that have the greatest impact on a company's bottom line, forecast demand for specific products, or determine the budget for the next year. ETNA uses machine learning algorithms and neural networks.

iFORA

The Intelligent Foresight Analytics (iFORA) system for intelligent analysis of large text data, developed by the Institute for Statistical Research and Economics of Knowledge at the National Research University Higher School of Economics, is a comprehensive infrastructure that provides processes for collecting, processing, aggregating, indexing, organizing data storage, monitoring and analyzing patterns and trends reflecting current and emerging challenges and trends. iFORA data sources include more than 750 million documents in Russian, English and Chinese, including scientific articles, patent and grant applications, strategic documents, etc. Forecast estimates are given based on the iFORA consensus forecast model - an aggregation of forecast estimates automatically identified from open arrays of text information.

MTS AI

The neural network is based on an open language model for the English language and additionally trained by a team of MTS AI engineers using instructions compiled by AI trainers. According to its own data, the neural network is used every day by more than 80 million people within the MTS ecosystem. For example, in December 2022, MTS AI integrated the AI ​​function for decrypting unwanted calls into the Defender service for MTS subscribers. In November 2023, MTS AI connected neural networks to analyze calls and text chats.

Meteum

In 2015, Yandex developed Meteum weather forecast technology: it combines classical meteorological models and machine learning technologies. This allows you to refine existing models and take into account local features, and therefore give a more accurate forecast. In 2021, version Meteum 2.0 was released (it relies not only on technical data, but also on user signals, and also uses the new CatBoost machine learning method). Yandex uses five forecast sources from national centers in the USA, CANADA, Japan and Europe, as well as its own forecast, which the company calculates based on the WRF (Weather Research and Forecasting) model; a numerical weather prediction model that is suitable for both forecasting the state of the atmosphere and and for scientific research).