USA: Cattle market overview for the 19th week of 2022

Cattle futures on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) fell on Thursday as high MEAT prices put pressure on US consumer demand . Worries that inflation could stay high for longer than expected weighed on markets, analysts said, as higher prices could cut meat sales.

Traders also watched the price of grain used as livestock feed rise after the USDA monthly crop report showed that domestic stocks of wheat and corn are expected to decline next year.

Wheat futures rose on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange due to lower-than-expected production forecasts, which provided additional support to the corn market.

“Today's report highlighted the importance of planting corn on time because we have far fewer wheat supplies that you can't feed into your feed rations,” said Mike Zuzolo, president of Global Commodity.  

USDA said in its monthly report that 2023 cattle prices are forecast to be higher than 2022 levels due to reduced supplies.

A separate USDA weekly report said net U.S. beef EXPORT sales for the week ending May 5 were 28,400 tons in 2022, a marketing-year high.

USDA forecasts 2023 beef production at 26.018 billion pounds, down 1.9 billion pounds or 6.8% from its 2022 forecast. This will be the largest annual decline in beef production on record. The USDA raised its forecasts for beef imports due to the growth in supplies from Brazil and Mexico and expectations of an increase in imports from

Australia in the second half of the year. The USDA now forecasts beef imports at 3.545 billion pounds, up 280 million pounds or 8.6% from its January forecast and 5.6% from a year ago.

Beef exports for 2022 have also been revised up by 86 million pounds. As a result, per capita beef consumption is projected to be slightly higher in 2022 than in 2021, but a drop in production next year could trigger a 7% decline in per capita beef consumption.

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WEEKLY CUT CHOICE COST

CATTLE SALES

Sale of livestock, heads

Average weight

05/06/2022

05/13/2022

Growth per week,%

05/06/2022

05/13/2022

Growth,%

Bulls (live weight)

40 082

28 371

-29.2%

1435

1436

0.1%

Heifers (live weight)

17 032

13 447

-21.0%

1 300

1 296

-0.3%

Bulls (slaughter. weight)

15 259

16 302

6.8%

925

920

-0.5%

Heifers (slaughter weight)

4 788

3715

-22.4%

835

835

0.0%

WEEKLY WEIGHTED AVERAGE PRICE OF BULLS

BEEF PRODUCTION

Slaughter volume

19 week

19 week 2021

Growth per year,%

Live weight

657 000

644 000

2.0%

slaughter weight

1374

1367

0.5%

Beef production (million pounds)

831

826

0.6%

Beef production (thousand tons)

544.5

530.8

2.6%

CME, Livestock Futures

Week 18

Week 19

Growth per week,%

June

132.75

132.08

-0.5%

August

135.53

132.35

-2.3%

October

142.88

139.13

-2.6%

CME, Fattener Cattle Futures

May

159.55

157.88

-1.0%

August

174.70

168.03

-3.8%

September

177.95

170.68

-4.1%

You can learn more about the state of the cattle market in the usa (cattle prices, beef prices by category, production dynamics) in the weekly reviews of the meat market in RUSSIA and in the world from Meatinfo.ru.

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