The State of Domestic Beef Production in Canada: Current Trends and Market Impact

Decline in Adult Cattle Production

Adult cattle production, which is primarily used for ground beef, fell 11% from a year ago and is 6% below the five-year average. This decline has a significant impact on the supply of economically viable beef products, forcing both retailers and consumers to adapt. With shortages, many restaurants and stores are having to rethink their offerings and pricing.

Impact on the Foodservice Sector Rising beef

prices and reduced domestic supply have had a noticeable impact on the foodservice sector. In the first half of 2024 , foodservice sales increased 4.6%. Full-service restaurants saw sales increase 3%, while fast food and takeout increased 6%. However, foodservice price inflation , which averages 3.8%, suggests that restaurants are being forced to pass on their higher costs to consumers. With retail beef prices at record highs, many consumers are looking for more affordable protein sources, which in turn is impacting menu choices at restaurants and cafes. In response, food service establishments may begin offering alternative options, such as chicken or plant-based protein, to keep customers interested and profits flowing. Increased Beef Imports With domestic supplies declining, CANADA has significantly increased its beef imports . From January to July 2024, import volumes increased by 15% and value by 24%. Canada’s top beef suppliers remain the United States , which accounts for 48.2% of the market, and Australia , New Zealand, Uruguay, and Mexico , which together account for 86% of all imports. While these increases in imports help offset shortages in the domestic market, they also raise questions about Canada’s reliance on foreign supplies and the potential impact on domestic producers. The current state of Canada’s domestic beef production is a major concern. Lower production, higher imports and higher prices for beef are having a significant impact on the market, especially in the foodservice sector. With shortages and rising prices, restaurants and consumers are forced to adapt, which could lead to long-term changes in consumer preferences and the structure of the supply in the market. it is important to monitor future trends to understand how these changes will affect the economy and consumer behavior in the future.