Brazilian beef production to rise this year

With a recovery in livestock numbers that began in 2019 and gained momentum in 2020, significantly more calves and bulls should enter the market in the second half of 2022, ready to be introduced into intensive production systems, which should lead to a change in the cycle livestock production and therefore increase the supply of livestock for slaughter, according to the latest Rabobank report.

“Importantly, as feed prices are still expected to be high in the second half of 2022, the margins of ranchers operating in the domestic Brazilian market may make it impractical to place these cattle in feedlots. On the other hand, for the overseas market, especially in CHINA, there are still opportunities. If these young animals are pastured, supply is likely to increase in the first half of 2023,” Rabobank analysts said.

In recent years, higher prices for beef have made this product less affordable for a large segment of Brazilian consumers, resulting in lower average consumption levels. Due to higher prices and reduced purchasing power, per capita beef consumption is unlikely to return to previous levels in the short term. On the other hand, EXPORT demand is high. The combination of relatively low prices due to the depreciation of the real, expectations of increased supply in Brazil and limited supply in other exporting countries is expected to increase the competitiveness of Brazilian beef in the international market. China is expected to remain Brazil's largest export destination until at least 2025.