European pig sector expects production and consumption to decline

In its Spring Community Pig Market Outlook, the EU Commission reached the same conclusions as the USDA . According to Brussels analysts, destocking in 2021 and currently very high production costs will lead to a fall in pork production in the 27 member countries by about 700,000 tons, or 3%, to 22.9 million tons this year compared to with the previous year.

it is estimated that, especially in countries with African swine fever (ASF), including Germany, Poland and Romania, the decline in production is likely to be more significant. Production is forecast to remain stable in Denmark and increase by 3% in Spain. It is also expected that due to high feed costs, animals will be delivered to slaughterhouses earlier and with less weight.

EU pork exports are expected to fall further after 2021, falling by just over 100,000 tons, or just over 2%, to 4.64 million tons. Apart from CHINA , less goods are expected to be sent to Ukraine and Belarus. On the other hand, exports to the UK are expected to increase again in 2022 after logistical issues are resolved. Concerning consumption, the commission expects the negative trend to continue and decline by about three percent; pork consumption per capita is expected to decrease by 1.1 kg compared to 2021 and average 32 kg.