Renaissance Capital predicted the average dollar exchange rate in the range of ₽85-105

The potential for stabilization and even strengthening of the ruble remains, analysts at Renaissance Capital believe. The average DOLLAR exchange rate in 2022 will be, according to experts,

The ruble remains under pressure amid geopolitical uncertainty and instability in the markets, but the potential for its stabilization and even strengthening remains, analysts at Renaissance Capital said in the review “On a Pause During Uncertainty” (RBC Investments   has it). According to experts, the dollar may decline from the recent ₽110-120 to ₽85-105 in the coming months.

As of 16:53 Moscow time, the dollar exchange rate on the Moscow Exchange fell by 1.4% compared to the previous day’s closing level, to ₽108.6. During the trading session, the range of quotes change was ₽105.1-110.1.

The dollar lost 5 rubles at the opening of trading Dollar , Ruble , Moscow Exchange Index

Renaissance Capital also gave a forecast for the main macroeconomic indicators in 2022:

inflation will be 15% per annum by the end of 2022 and 5.5% by the end of 2023, GDP this year may show a decline of 6-10%. The dynamics of GDP in 2023 is projected at the level of minus 1% to plus 1%, analysts expect the key rate of the Bank of RUSSIA to be in the range of 13-15% by the end of this year and in the corridor of 7-9% by the end of 2023.

An emergency increase in the key rate of the Central Bank to 20%, together with temporary restrictions on foreign exchange transactions, helped reduce the risks associated with the banking sector, Renaissance Capital noted. Analysts said they see no reason to expect an additional increase in the key rate of the Bank of Russia. They do not exclude that the next step of the regulator will be its reduction. A reduction in the rate may follow as soon as there is more clarity regarding the results of the special military operation in Ukraine and the situation with sanctions and counter-sanctions is finally cleared up.

Renaissance Capital admitted that the first reduction in the key rate of the Central Bank is possible as early as June. The pace of easing will depend on a range of factors, including decisions on sanctions, capital controls, fiscal policy, and the persistence of inflation in global markets. “We forecast a key rate of 13-15% by the end of 2022,” the company said.

Analysts expect the key rate of the Central Bank of Russia to remain at the level of 20% Central Bank , Banking and finance , Key rate ,  Russia

To stabilize the situation on the financial markets, the Bank of Russia took a number of measures, in particular, obliged large Russian exporters to sell 80% of their foreign exchange earnings on the market to support the ruble exchange rate, and also introduced a commission on transactions for buying foreign currency through brokers. Also, the regulator raised the rate from 9.5% to 20% per annum at a meeting on February 28.

Renaissance Capital's forecast is at odds with the expectations of analysts surveyed by the Bank of Russia itself. From the March survey of the regulator, it follows that the dollar exchange rate on average in 2022 will be at the level of ₽110, and in 2023 - at the level of ₽118.4.

Follow the news of companies in our group "Vkontakte"

Investment is the investment of money to generate income or to preserve capital. There are financial investments (purchase of securities) and real ones (investments in industry, construction, and so on). In a broad sense, investments are divided into many subspecies: private or public, speculative or venture, and others. More