“They extended the dangerous period”: doctors gave a forecast for COVID in St. Petersburg

The government of St. Petersburg announced signs of a decrease in the incidence of CORONAVIRUS, despite the high number of daily cases of "covid" (about 1.9 - 2 thousand). Last week, the HEAD of the HEALTH committee, Dmitry Lisovets, spoke twice about the passed peak of the pandemic, and on Monday, July 12, governor Alexander Beglov spoke about the positive dynamics.

The doctors interviewed by RBC Petersburg drew attention to the fragmented nature of the published statistics and shared their forecast for the development of the pandemic in the region.

Opposite dynamics

According to Alexander Beglov, the number of hospitalizations of "covid" patients in the city has decreased by 23% over the past week. “As of July 9, about 11% of the beds were free. The existing infectious bed fund in the city is enough,” Beglov emphasized. Earlier, the head of the city's health committee, Dmitry Lisovets, said that a decrease in the number of hospitalizations could be a sign that the peak of the pandemic has passed.

As the press service of the Komzdrav told RBC Petersburg, officials draw conclusions about the situation in the city, taking into account many indicators of the epidemic process. They consider the most important statistics of hospitalizations, as well as the number of people who applied for medical assistance, the number of patients delivered to the ambulance and those recovering. And these indicators show a positive trend.

When will the peak come?

Experts interviewed by RBC Petersburg agree that it is not worth judging the dynamics of the incidence solely on the basis of the statistics of registered cases of covid; the number of hospitalizations, in their opinion, is more informative. However, it is too early to say with confidence that the peak has been passed, especially given the fragmented nature of the statistics, doctors say. Thus, the DIRECTOR of the St. Petersburg Medical Forum, Candidate of Medical Sciences Sergey Anufriev noted: “We have seen that the statistics are not collected, they are interrupted. There was a certain period when we did not have data on hospitalization, on mortality, and could not fully understand what people die from - from the coronavirus or from the consequences of not providing medical care to chronically ill people.