US Department of Agriculture predicts growth in Russian pork production and exports

The production of chicken MEAT in RUSSIA in 2023, according to the forecast of the US Department of Agriculture, will amount to 4.87 million tons, which is 25 thousand tons more than the January forecast. In 2022, it was estimated at 4.8 million tons. Exports this year may reach 250 thousand tons. In the previous forecast, it was the same, in 2022 - 5 thousand tons less. American analysts estimated domestic consumption at 4.77 million tons (4.7 million tons), a year earlier - also at 4.7 million tons. 

At the same time, both production and consumption are expected to decline in beef: in 2022, its output amounted to about 1.32 million tons, according to forecasts for 2023 - 1.3 million tons, although in January the US Department of Agriculture expected an increase to 1.37 million tons. Domestic consumption in 2023 will amount to 1.47 million tons (in the previous forecast - 1.51 million tons), in 2022 it was 1.52 million tons. In 2019, consumption was almost 1.77 million tons.

This year, the National Union of Pig Breeders (NSS) expects an increase in pork production by at least 5%. This will guarantee stagnation, and possibly a further decline in prices for this type of meat, said Yury Kovalev, general DIRECTOR of the NSS. He also noted that in the next three years (including the current one), the annual production of pork in agricultural organizations could increase to 6 million tons (in live weight). At the same time, the top 20 market players by 2025 will increase annual production compared to 2022 by 25%.

The EXPORT potential of pig products is limited by those world markets that are already open to Russia. The only thing that can change the situation is the opening of the Chinese market . “This country consumes about 60 million tons of pork per year, it will always import 3-5 million tons of this type of meat, and for Russia this is a huge potential. Today, everyone is working to open the PRC market for our country. There are currently no other serious points of export growth,” Kovalev said.

The HEAD of the National Meat Association (NMA), Sergey Yushin, said earlier that the share of beef in world consumption has decreased from 24% to 20% since 2000, while poultry meat consumption has grown very rapidly and now accounts for more than 35%, the share pork decreased from 38% to 33%, the share of lamb remained stable at 12%. Today, on average, a person consumes a little less than 9 kg of beef per year on the planet, and in this regard, Russia , based on official statistics, looks better with a consumption of 14 kg, but in absolute terms, per capita consumption is declining, as is the share of beef in the diet (now no more than 16-17% compared to 45% 20-25 years ago). At the same time, the consumption of all types of meat in Russia is steadily growing.