EU: High carcass prices are unable to curb the trend of population decline

The constant stream of new requirements creates uncertainty for farmers, limiting their ability to invest. For example, although EU cattle exports , particularly to Turkey, have recovered in 2022, upcoming EU animal welfare legislation regarding the transport of animals is expected to restrict future exports of live cattle . In Central Europe, a combination of specific and structural support, rising carcass weights and falling feed prices is forecast to support a modest recovery in calf production.

The Central European herd is expected to expand or stabilize. However, in western EU member states , cattle numbers are projected to decline further in 2024 due to a lack of support for the sector. Due to smaller cow numbers and reduced supplies of young animals, slaughter in the EU is declining.

Estimated EU beef production in 2023 and projected EU beef production in 2024 will continue to decline. Limited domestic and global beef supplies are leading to higher prices, lower retail and foodservice sales, and lower EU beef imports, particularly high-quality beef. Due to limited domestic supply, EU beef exports are expected to decline.