EU predicts further decline in pork production

Shuttleworth said that the ASF situation on the continent is not expected to change dramatically in 2023, but will continue to elicit a strong response from affected countries and trading partners.

"The limited supply will continue to support higher prices , which are currently at record levels," she wrote. “This will make EU pork less competitive on the global market . Exports from the EU are projected to decline by another 3% in 2023, after a 16% decline in 2022, which was mainly driven by a 50% reduction in shipments to CHINA , despite growth in other regions.”

Shuttleworth believes that reduced EU pork production could open up opportunities for both domestic and UK EXPORT markets .

“As EU pork prices lose their edge over the UK, this could lead to an increase in the market share of domestic products available at retail,” she wrote. “It could also lead to other countries that typically look to the EU when choosing sources of pork imports to also consider the UK, although this could likely be limited by the projected increase in production in other major exporters such as the US.”