What's next for the Canadian pork industry in 2024?

The Canadian pig population is projected to decline by 5% by early 2024 as a result of reduced slaughter capacity in Quebec and a decline in sow numbers. The decline in production will be most significant in Eastern CANADA as a result of the closure of the Olymel slaughter plant as the company reduces production volumes.

Hog yields are expected to decline slightly in 2024 after an estimated 2% decline in 2023 due to fewer sows, but fertility will be slightly higher as Ontario recovers from ASF virus issues in 2023.

U.S. hog exports will be reduced as producers make adjustments to reduce slaughter capacity.

Expansion of sow processing in Western Canada will result in an increase in sow slaughter and a decrease in sow exports. However, sow processing relative to cull volumes will remain limited and the United States will remain integral to the processing of Canadian cull sows.

The weaner trade will also decline due to the smaller hog harvest.

Pork production in 2024 is projected to be down slightly from 2023 (2,030 thousand versus 2,040 thousand metric tons) as the Olymel plant closure is completed at the end of December 2023.

Pork exports will continue to decline from 2024 due to lower production and robust domestic demand.