Pork prices in China remain low

While prices in Europe are rising, producers in CHINA are suffering from oversupply in the MEAT market.

In China, there are currently too many slaughter pigs on the market due to seasonally weak demand after the Spring Festival, so prices could drop even further. Chinese State Television (CCTV) reported, citing the Ministry of Agriculture in Beijing, that pig slaughter was 23.6% higher in January and 8.2% higher in February than in the same month last year. Chen Guanghua, deputy DIRECTOR of the Department of Animal Husbandry and Veterinary Medicine of the Ministry, recalled that since the beginning of the year, the number of pigs has increased by 10.5% to 449 million pigs, exceeding the level that existed before the outbreak of African swine fever (ASF). Accordingly, it should be assumed that there will be a good offer in the coming months.

Thus, slaughter pig prices are likely to remain low or even fall slightly. According to Chen, this means losses for producers, which, according to the latest data, amounted to about 150 yuan (21.55 euros) per slaughter pig. However, international analysts expect higher losses. The average wholesale price of pork in mid-March was 18.42 yuan per kilogram (2.65 euros), 52% lower than a year ago.

The elimination of breeding sows may accelerate, Chen said, but the state has taken stabilization measures: in addition to pork purchases and temporary subsidies, they include protecting key production facilities to avoid the risk of over-culling breeding sows.

Chinese hog market analyst Jim Huang also expects low hog prices in 2022. A large number of sows and weak consumption will ensure a sufficient supply of pork compared to demand. This is bad news for European and American pork exporters, he said, as China 's demand for meat imports will be low this year and there is no price differential to stimulate international trade.