St Petersburg University scientists predicted the peak of the epidemic in Russia

The current wave of CORONAVIRUS in RUSSIA will peak on February 22-24, 2022, when 200,000 new cases of covid-19 will be detected daily in the country . Such a forecast was given by scientists from the Center for Intelligent Logistics of St. Petersburg State University (SPbGU), based on the mathematical model they created for the spread of coronavirus in Russia.

30 days for ups and downs

“If the dynamics of the “percentage increase” parameter continues for another week, then the peak in the number of new cases of the disease will shift from mid-February to February 22-24. And at the peak, the threshold of 200 thousand new cases per day can be exceeded. And the number of [simultaneously] ill people in the country by about the same moment can reach the level of 4 million,” Viktor Zakharov, HEAD of the Center for Intelligent Logistics at St Petersburg University, told reporters. According to him, this indicator plays an important role in preparing the healthcare system for the unfavorable course of the epidemic and an increase in the number of sick people.

According to scientists, from the end of February, the current wave of the epidemic will decline. At the same time, Zakharov notes, foreign studies show that after an increase in the incidence for 30-40 days, the same period of time will be required for the country to return to pre-peak levels. In Russia, the incidence began to rise sharply from January 12, that is, by the end of March, the incidence may drop to 15-17 thousand new cases per day (as it was in early January). “What will happen next is not a question for us. Epidemiology can comment,” Viktor Zakharov said, adding that the St Petersburg University model does not provide long-term forecasts.

What is the calculation based on?

The Center for Intelligent Logistics at St Petersburg University presented a new model for forecasting the number of active cases of COVID-19 last fall. It is called CIR (Confirmed cases, Infected, Removed - English "confirmed cases", "infected", "excluded" - recovered or died) and is based on the "principle of the dynamic balance of the epidemic." “Indicators such as confirmed cases of the disease, currently infected, recovered and deceased, have a certain relationship. The algorithms developed in the course of the study for a new parameter, which we called “the percentage increase in the total number of detected cases of the disease”, allowed us to take a new approach to modeling practice,” Viktor Zakharov explained.

St Petersburg University started making forecasts on the spread of the coronavirus back in 2020, but then it used a different model. It was based on data on the dynamics of the spread of “covid” in countries where the epidemic began earlier.