The taxi market has recovered after a disastrous pandemic year

At the end of 2021, the taxi market was able to recover from a failed pandemic year. But this year, analysts expect a new fall,

In 2021, the volume of the legal taxi market reached 820 billion rubles, according to a study received by RBC from the Analytical Center under the Government of RUSSIA. it follows from it that in 2020 the figure was 644 billion rubles, which is 9% lower than in 2019, when the center last published statistics.

In assessing the market, experts took into account: the earnings of legal drivers (about 650 billion rubles), the income of taxi companies and aggregators (about 83 billion rubles each). The center estimated the market of illegal carriers at 157 billion rubles, or 16% of the total taxi market, taking into account the legal segment. For comparison: in 2019, illegal taxis accounted for 12% of the transportation market.

In terms of revenue share among aggregators, last year Yandex.Taxi (66%) was the leader, followed by Citymobil (8.3%), Maxim (7%), Vezet Group (7% ) and Gett (6.6%). Three years ago, Yandex.Taxi was also the leader, but its share was much smaller - 27% of the legal taxi market.

The number of full-time employees in the taxi industry in 2020 increased by 2.6% compared to the previous year, and in 2021 - by another 3.4% and reached 575 thousand people, the study says. The size of the market has grown due to more intensive use of vehicles, a decrease in their idling and an increase in the number of drivers who consider employment in the taxi industry as an additional one. The number of the latter increased by 29%, to 139 thousand people. This is due to the entry into the market of taxi services of participants who are simultaneously employed in other areas of activity, and the growth in the number of self-employed in the industry, the experts of the center believe.

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The number of vehicles used for taxi transportation increased by 1.5% to 406,000. The average earnings of a driver in millionaires increased, while in small towns, on the contrary, it decreased. So, if in a city with a population of more than 5 million people, the driver received an average of 77 thousand rubles. in 2019, then in 2021 the figure increased to 83 thousand rubles, and in cities with a population of less than 100 thousand people it decreased from 36 thousand to 15 thousand rubles.

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After the start of the military operation in Ukraine and the sanctions that followed it, Gett and Citymobil services announced their withdrawal from the Russian taxi market. The latter was supposed to stop working on April 15, but a few days before that, People & People, which manages Taxovichkof and other services, agreed to purchase the assets of the service. Details of the deal were not disclosed, but a representative of the buyer said he intended to keep the Citymobil brand.

In early April, representatives of several taxi companies told RBC that in the new economic conditions they faced problems that could potentially lead to a reduction in their number in the country and a deterioration in the quality of services, including an increase in payments under leasing agreements and the cost of OSAGO, an increase in the cost of new vehicles and spare parts, as well as their shortage, etc.

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According to the CEO of Taxovichkof Maxim Fedorov, in early March they "notice a decrease in the volume of the taxi market by an average of 15%." He explained this by saying that "people were confused, did not understand what would happen in the near future, and began to save where possible." “Over time, the situation has stabilized, and now we don’t notice a sharp decrease in the level of taxi orders, but there is a gradual flow of the audience from higher taxi classes to more budget ones, in our service, orders at the economy rate increased by 6%,” Fedorov said. . He expects that by the end of 2022, the market volume will decrease by no more than 10-20%.

A representative of the Maxim service said that they did not see a decrease in demand in the first quarter. “In a number of cities, the number of orders we had in March-April increased more than we expected. The supply is also increasing - new drivers from companies that have announced they are leaving the market are coming to Maxim, ”he said. At the end of 2022, the company plans to grow by 25% "in terms of the number of orders and finances", but the possibility of fulfilling the plan "will depend on the solvency of people and the adjustment of carriers' tariffs," RBC's interlocutor says.

According to him, this year “the approach to the legal regulation of the market” laid down in the draft law developed by the Ministry of Transport bears great risks. The ministry's initiative, shaped into the so-called draft law on taxis, proposes introducing a minimum fare for the transport of passengers and luggage; limit the number of passenger taxis for each region; oblige to install devices for monitoring the attention and fatigue of the driver; introduce liability of aggregators in case of harm to life, HEALTH or property of a passenger, if the driver did not have a permit or it was canceled; oblige aggregators to open representative offices in the regions of presence, to conclude an agreement with the self-employed;

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The analytical center does not provide a forecast for the market size at the end of 2022. But, as Sergey Karavaev, HEAD of the center's direction, noted, in recent years the industry has had a high turnover of personnel associated with the closure of borders: there has been an outflow of drivers from the CIS countries and an influx of local personnel. “This trend may continue into 2022. In general, the experience of the pandemic and post-pandemic period shows that with the support of the industry from the state and business, the number of people choosing employment in a taxi is growing,” Karavaev predicts.

According to a representative of Maxim, there is a constant rotation of drivers in the taxi: for example, in the spring and summer, they leave the taxi for seasonal work, for construction, and return in the fall. “Labor migrants come to Russia not because it is very good here, but because it is worse with work in their country. Replacing migrants with local drivers will in any case not be enough due to the high demand for taxi services,” he said.

The head of Taxovichkof noted that, due to the fact that many companies suspend their activities and leave the market and due to massive layoffs, people who do not have experience in taxis can go into the driver's profession. Over the past two months, the increase in new drivers in the service, according to him, amounted to 12%.

A representative of Yandex.Taxi said that both they and the taxi companies are recording an influx of drivers into the system and an increased interest on the part of drivers in the self-employment regime, but refrained from further comments. A spokesperson for InDriver declined to comment.

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“Working in a taxi remains one of the most popular ways to earn money in the country, new drivers are entering the industry, all taxi companies, not only members of the association, notice this,” says Natalya Lozinskaya, executive DIRECTOR of the National Taxi Council. “As for the demand for travel, with the advent of warm weather and good weather, he slept a little, but this happens every year, compared to previous years, we still do not see significant changes.”

What other changes are waiting for market participants

Maxim Fedorov said that after users became unable to pay using GOOGLE Pay and APPLE Pay services, they began to link bank cards to the application, and the share of orders via a telephone line with cash payment increased.

The average cost of cars, both foreign and domestic production, their components has at least doubled, the maintenance and repair of the fleet, and insurance are more expensive, lists Fedorov. “Due to the rise in prices for cars, there will be a gradual increase in the share of domestic cars in the taxi fleet. Also now we are noticing a general trend towards a decrease in the year of admission of cars (which are in operation. -), for example, from 2015 to 2010, but here it is important to take into account the good technical condition of each car, ”said the Taxovichkof representative. At the same time, rising prices for cars and their maintenance may force citizens to use public transport rather than personal transport, including taxis, he argues.

According to the representative of "Maxim", they expect that in the new economic conditions the practice of additional payments to drivers will stop and "everyone will compete on an equal footing."

According to Lozinskaya, the main difficulties faced by carriers are related to updating and maintaining the volume of the fleet. “The industry faced a significant increase in car prices last year, but now this problem has become even more acute. For already purchased cars, the rates for leasing payments are unreasonably increased, the cost of OSAGO policies increased by 30%. All this greatly affects the economy of taxi companies and may lead to their bankruptcy if support measures are not taken, ”said the head of the National Taxi Council.