Forecast of the year: the main questions for officials and businesses about the future of the economy

Is it worth waiting for further sanctions threats, what will the Russian economy be like in ten years, will interaction with the West return - these and other questions about the future were answered by SPIEF 2023 participants

Participants of the XXVI St. Petersburg Economic Forum answered questions from RBC about how the life of the country, the national economy has changed, and what changes they expect and wish for in the future

8 questions to officials and businessmen about the future of the economy

On how the worldview has changed since February 2022 Alexey Chekunkov, Minister for the Development of the Far East and the Arctic “This for each of us in its own way served as a test, and the beginning, I’m sure, of a new page, a new level of understanding of how everything works. For me, the most important frontier was my trip to the Donbass, when I personally traveled all over the regions that help to restore the Far East, talked with a large number of fighters who are there - not only with those who take part in a special military operation, but also with those who have been defending their lives and dignity, and their relatives for nine years. Therefore, our sacred duty was to help these people. And I am firmly convinced that we will carry this work through to the end. And, of course, for us, as for a country, for a society that somewhere naively 30 years ago, even more, they tried to jump onto the market rails, not quite understanding where we rushed and what rules the game is played there. Alexander Dugin philosopher “The events of February 2022 are theoretically capable of changing the worldview orientations of so many people. I think a large part especially of our elite and a large part of our people [it happened]. For me it was like a confirmation, if you like, tragic experiment. I was convinced that it was going to happen, but I didn't know when it would happen, and what happened was absolutely inevitable, absolutely necessary and absolutely conditioned. The only question was when the NWO will begin, in what starting conditions it will be and in what starting context. I did not know this, so my worldview, if you like, only strengthened. This is such an experience, the simplest, confirming the obvious. Mikhail Oseevsky President of Rostelecom “This is not a military conflict after all. This is our struggle for independence and freedom. For me, this is of particular importance - my father grew up in Sevastopol and graduated from high school. I didn't have a question. Donbass is primordially Russian lands. We did not seize anything, but defended the land where our ancestors, the Russian people, traditionally lived. It sounds pretentious, but it's true. And the fact that there were sanctions ... I was convinced that it was going to happen, but I didn't know when it would happen, and what happened was absolutely inevitable, absolutely necessary and absolutely conditioned. The only question was when the NWO will begin, in what starting conditions it will be and in what starting context. I did not know this, so my worldview, if you like, only strengthened. This is such an experience, the simplest, confirming the obvious. Mikhail Oseevsky President of Rostelecom “This is not a military conflict after all. This is our struggle for independence and freedom. For me, this is of particular importance - my father grew up in Sevastopol and graduated from high school. I didn't have a question. Donbass is primordially Russian lands. We did not seize anything, but defended the land where our ancestors, the Russian people, traditionally lived. It sounds pretentious, but it's true. And the fact that there were sanctions ... I was convinced that it was going to happen, but I didn't know when it would happen, and what happened was absolutely inevitable, absolutely necessary and absolutely conditioned. The only question was when the NWO will begin, in what starting conditions it will be and in what starting context. I did not know this, so my worldview, if you like, only strengthened. This is such an experience, the simplest, confirming the obvious. Mikhail Oseevsky President of Rostelecom “This is not a military conflict after all. This is our struggle for independence and freedom. For me, this is of particular importance - my father grew up in Sevastopol and graduated from high school. I didn't have a question. Donbass is primordially Russian lands. We did not seize anything, but defended the land where our ancestors, the Russian people, traditionally lived. It sounds pretentious, but it's true. And the fact that there were sanctions ... but he did not know when it would happen, and what happened was absolutely inevitable, absolutely necessary and absolutely conditioned. The only question was when the NWO will begin, in what starting conditions it will be and in what starting context. I did not know this, so my worldview, if you like, only strengthened. This is such an experience, the simplest, confirming the obvious. Mikhail Oseevsky President of Rostelecom “This is not a military conflict after all. This is our struggle for independence and freedom. For me, this is of particular importance - my father grew up in Sevastopol and graduated from high school. I didn't have a question. Donbass is primordially Russian lands. We did not seize anything, but defended the land where our ancestors, the Russian people, traditionally lived. It sounds pretentious, but it's true. And the fact that there were sanctions ... but he did not know when it would happen, and what happened was absolutely inevitable, absolutely necessary and absolutely conditioned. The only question was when the NWO will begin, in what starting conditions it will be and in what starting context. I did not know this, so my worldview, if you like, only strengthened. This is such an experience, the simplest, confirming the obvious. Mikhail Oseevsky President of Rostelecom “This is not a military conflict after all. This is our struggle for independence and freedom. For me, this is of particular importance - my father grew up in Sevastopol and graduated from high school. I didn't have a question. Donbass is primordially Russian lands. We did not seize anything, but defended the land where our ancestors, the Russian people, traditionally lived. It sounds pretentious, but it's true. And the fact that there were sanctions ... absolutely necessary and absolutely conditioned. The only question was when the NWO will begin, in what starting conditions it will be and in what starting context. I did not know this, so my worldview, if you like, only strengthened. This is such an experience, the simplest, confirming the obvious. Mikhail Oseevsky President of Rostelecom “This is not a military conflict after all. This is our struggle for independence and freedom. For me, this is of particular importance - my father grew up in Sevastopol and graduated from high school. I didn't have a question. Donbass is primordially Russian lands. We did not seize anything, but defended the land where our ancestors, the Russian people, traditionally lived. It sounds pretentious, but it's true. And the fact that there were sanctions ... absolutely necessary and absolutely conditioned. The only question was when the NWO will begin, in what starting conditions it will be and in what starting context. I did not know this, so my worldview, if you like, only strengthened. This is such an experience, the simplest, confirming the obvious. Mikhail Oseevsky President of Rostelecom “This is not a military conflict after all. This is our struggle for independence and freedom. For me, this is of particular importance - my father grew up in Sevastopol and graduated from high school. I didn't have a question. Donbass is primordially Russian lands. We did not seize anything, but defended the land where our ancestors, the Russian people, traditionally lived. It sounds pretentious, but it's true. And the fact that there were sanctions ... so my outlook, if you like, only strengthened. This is such an experience, the simplest, confirming the obvious. Mikhail Oseevsky President of Rostelecom “This is not a military conflict after all. This is our struggle for independence and freedom. For me, this is of particular importance - my father grew up in Sevastopol and graduated from high school. I didn't have a question. Donbass is primordially Russian lands. We did not seize anything, but defended the land where our ancestors, the Russian people, traditionally lived. It sounds pretentious, but it's true. And the fact that there were sanctions ... so my outlook, if you like, only strengthened. This is such an experience, the simplest, confirming the obvious. Mikhail Oseevsky President of Rostelecom “This is not a military conflict after all. This is our struggle for independence and freedom. For me, this is of particular importance - my father grew up in Sevastopol and graduated from high school. I didn't have a question. Donbass is primordially Russian lands. We did not seize anything, but defended the land where our ancestors, the Russian people, traditionally lived. It sounds pretentious, but it's true. And the fact that there were sanctions ... I didn't have a question. Donbass is primordially Russian lands. We did not seize anything, but defended the land where our ancestors, the Russian people, traditionally lived. It sounds pretentious, but it's true. And the fact that there were sanctions ... I didn't have a question. Donbass is primordially Russian lands. We did not seize anything, but defended the land where our ancestors, the Russian people, traditionally lived. It sounds pretentious, but it's true. And the fact that there were sanctions ...RUSSIA is a huge country, there is not enough time to travel all over it.” Denis Pushilin Acting HEAD of the Donetsk People's Republic “Nothing has changed for me, except that we have now finally returned and become a full-fledged subject of the Russian Federation. For me, sanctionsbegan back in April 2014, but taking into account the fact that I had nothing to hide, and even more so, I did not have any accounts and other property outside the Donetsk People’s Republic, outside of Russia, therefore these sanctions are an accompanying informational noise. Therefore, for me, the sanctions, let’s say, are some evidence that, of course, my steps are unpleasant and unacceptable for the West, but they are absolutely acceptable, which means that for Russia, this is more important for me.” Andrey Chibis Governor of the Murmansk region "I began to work even harder." Vladimir Mazur Governor of the Tomsk Region “The outlook hasn't changed much. We all knew this - it has been dragging on and on for a long time. This conflict has been brewing for a long time. And [our] country did everything to prevent it from happening. But, unfortunately, the world and NATO played a different game. Of course, today the life of the country has changed, we have received serious challenges. But a challenge is always an opportunity. Today the country is united, today we are unitedbusiness, science, industry - all mobilized in connection with the sanctions, the cessation of supplies. Industrial and scientific groups mobilized to produce their own high-quality, high-tech products. We have always had the potential for this, especially in the Tomsk region - we have always been strong in the scientific and educational complex - today we adequately provide the country with products that are in demand both in the civilian and military [spheres]." Alexander Kalinin President of Opora Rossii “The special military operation and subsequent sanctions by unfriendly countries showed that the Russian economy, and primarily small and medium-sized businesses, is ready to adapt to any changes and adequately respond to them. We are rebuilding production chains, logistics, and have begun to work more actively on import substitution and technological sovereignty. Another trend is that we see that not all companies voluntarily left Russia, many tried to stay, some were forced to leave under political and administrative pressure. At the same time, many new partners have appeared - there are a lot of countries in the world that want to work with Russia and are ready to occupy the vacated niches and develop in the same vector with us.” Andrey Sharonov generalDIRECTORNational ESG Alliance “Very seriously. My picture has changed, and I continue to comprehend how the world will now be arranged - both external and internal. ” Ruslan Sarkisov Managing Partner of the Voskhod Foundation “Our generation and our children face the task of building a new Russia, technologically strong with a cohesive society. And this is a very difficult task in the context of sanctions and ongoing events. It's time to re-read the book "How the Steel Was Tempered" and take an example from Pavka Korchagin. On the future of the Russian economy Aleksey Chekunkov Minister for the Development of the Far East and the Arctic “More diversified, more technological and not autarkic. I do not believe that Russia will close. I am confident that we will continue to be one of the key participants in international trade and international technological exchange. And thendividendour country will benefit from this courageous decision for many decades.” Ruslan Davydov Acting Head of the Federal Customs Service of Russia “In ten years, the Russian economy will be more independent or, as they say, sovereign. During these years we will have to create an economy that will be based mainly on the possibility of our own reproduction of the means of production. This is, for example, the development of aviation, including long-haul, shipbuilding, machine tool building, and the electronics industry. As for the production of consumer goods, clothing, footwear, household appliances, the so-called consumer goods, the Russian economy will need to make a serious breakthrough based on its own production base.” Mikhail Oseevsky President of Rostelecom market. In all large-scale industries - telecommunications, banking, retail, aviation - there are many market players, high competition, excellent product quality. This is a sign of a healthy body.Investmentscontinue: we and all the big companies are investing. So overall, I'm optimistic." Denis Pushilin Acting Head of the Donetsk People's Republic “During the most difficult periods, we saw just a certain breakthrough and the development of those industries that were not in demand. We now see even in the example of agriculture - this is probably one of the most striking examples - when there was an alternative, there was no point [to develop it] and to pay so much attention from the state to the development and support of agricultural producers. But at the moment, taking into account the sanctions that were introduced, we had to learn how to feed ourselves in a short period of time, provide for ourselves and still build EXPORT potential. It worked out. The fact that there is not enough technology now is a problem, there is no need to hide [it]. But we also see certain prospects, we already see certain developments that we have, and again, this gives an incentive, gives an opportunity to develop domestic enterprises, domestic companies. The fact that the state is now emphasizing this is, of course, [provides] additional opportunities that need to be used. Therefore, in ten years, I see the economy rebuilt and balanced, taking into account the external aggression that is now visible in terms of sanctions pressure. I think that in ten years the situation will not change dramatically, that is, for a long time. And here it is necessary to build all sectors of the economy with this in mind. And again with a reorientation to Asian countries and Arab countries, to the African continent. Plus Latin America, at least some of the countries are definitely in our context.” Andrey Chibis Governor of the Murmansk region "Technological and very powerful if we do everything right." Vladimir Mazur Governor of the Tomsk Region “I see a sustainable economy. We must become self-sufficient. We must remove the word "import substitution" - we must work for a long time to get ahead of imports. And there is no doubt: [thanks] to the potential of young scientists who give us their solutions, their products today, I [have] confidence that we will feel worthy in ten years on the world market.” Andrey Sharonov CEO of the National ESG Alliance “I think that Russia will be able to solve some of the most pressing problems that have arisen in connection with the isolation, but Russia, of course, will suffer from restrictions. And we will need to think about how not to lose competitive advantages, that we have in certain industries. It is important". Alexander Kalinin President of Opora Rossii “In 2022, when many predicted the collapse of the Russian economy, this did not happen. Joint actions of the government, regionalgovernment and business allowed to stabilize the situation and start a global transformation. I am sure that in ten years we will live in a country with a strong economy, a high level of technological sovereignty and a large share of small businesses in our country's GDP. Today, SMEs make up only one-fifth of the Russian economy, but under the new conditions, the role of small businesses has increased, and systemic development measures, such as the new SME Development Strategy, should help increase investment activity, the capitalization of small companies, and the fashion for entrepreneurship in Russia.” Evgeny Kozlov, Chairman of the Committee for Tourism of the City of Moscow “I will talk about the economy of Moscow, where we clearly see how tourism is turning from an application into a driver of economic development. More than 120 billion rubles. brought tourism to the budget of Moscow in 2022. On thosemoneythe city can, for example, build 40 kindergartens and schools or purchase all the necessary eco-friendly electric buses. At the same time, the development of the industry itself leads to an increase in business income, which, in turn, increases the city budget. I think that over time, the contribution of tourism to the city's economy will be more and more significant. On economic cooperation with the West Svetlana Chupsheva, Director General of the Agency for Strategic Initiatives “In some areas, cooperation between Russia and the West continues, some projects are still being developed jointly, many foreign entrepreneurs also chose not to break off the established dialogue with a number of our regions. The current geopolitical situation has shown that Russia must develop new formats and ways of interacting with the world, determine the main global and Russian socio-economic trends in the field of demography, food, ecology, climate, energy, which will ultimately allow us to create long-term strategies for the development of the country. The intermediate results of this work, which we started as part of the Horizon 2040 project, were presented at SPIEF.” Mikhail Matasov Deputy General Director of PJSC KAMAZ “It was definitely not a mistake. It would be more correct to simply take a more diversified approach, not to focus only on Western technologies and Western markets. But Russia, strictly speaking, did not leave Western markets - restrictions simply appeared in some industries, in some segments. Of course, we will return, and our former Western partners will ask us about this, they will ask us themselves. It is impossible to imagine the economy of European countries without cooperation with Russia.” Andrey Sharonov General Director of the National ESG Alliance “No, of course, it was not a mistake. These connections arose hundreds and hundreds of years ago. It's all objective. I think that, of course, Russia will return to Western markets. The question is for how long. As some joke: will this happen in our lifetime or beyond. But in general, as history shows, all conflicts end sooner or later. After that, the building of some new configuration of relations begins. How this conflict will end, I still do not understand and do not see. But I think that, based on the fact that all previous world conflicts have ended, this one will also end.” Alexander Dugin philosopher “It is impossible to overcome the confrontation with the West, in the future it will only grow, exponentially approaching the possibility of nuclear conflict. I can't say if it will happen or not, but we are on the brink. It is impossible to remove this [opposition], and it is simply irresponsible to expect it to be softened. It is necessary to build a life in radical opposition to the West, whether one likes it or not. There is a geopolitical inevitability of this conflict, a civilizational inevitability, a historical inevitability, a religious, eschatological, cultural inevitability.” Alexander Kalinin, President of Opora Rossii, “We did not refuse to cooperate with entrepreneurs from Western countries, but we really paid unjustifiably much attention to them. For example, the same importation of products with the permission of the copyright holder, which was in the interests of not our citizens and not businesses, but only transnational corporations. Today this trend has changed, we are strengthening cooperation withinEAEU and the CIS, with the countries of the global East and South, and with our main trading partner, CHINA. And this is bearing fruit, joint ventures are developing, many industries are being localized, and technology is being exchanged. I am sure that those countries and companies that want to work with Russia will do so in various sectors of the economy.” Andrey Chibis Governor of the Murmansk Region “I think so. Because the economy wins over the inadequate behavior of individual politicians. [Regarding the second question] no - it was an absolutely balanced policy, partnership and beneficial both for our industry and for those partners who worked with us. Inadequate actions of Western politicians under US pressure- it was a force majeure that happened. At the same time, it is completely obvious that, just as the task is now, so then, it was necessary to be even more actively engaged in technological independence. But, of course, there was no mistake in orienting towards the West.” Vladimir Mazur Governor of the Tomsk region “I see that we can return, but only [on the basis of] partnerships. Somewhere, someone will supply something to someone or interact, but only on [the basis of] true partnerships.” Anton Alikhanov Governor of the Kaliningrad Region “I don't think that our country has not made quite successful attempts to diversify, but now it has become more relevant. But the economic logic of our former European partners, I hope, will win. There have been many wars in the history of Europe, and everyone always returned to cooperation even after the wars, partnership and even friendship. On sanctions threats Ruslan Davydov, Acting Head of the Federal Customs Service of Russia “From the point of view of threats to our economy, I believe that the main sanctions threats have already materialized. Everyone says that we are the absolute champions in terms of sanctions, and indeed, about 10,000 sanctions have already been introduced. As for the risks, firstly, it will be extremely difficult for the West to invent something new in order to prick us even more painfully. Secondly, as they say, a holy place is never empty. The share of the European Union in Russia's trade turnover for five months of this year has decreased three times, to 18%, and once it was about 54%. In fact, these countries have voluntarily left our market, trade has been restructured, and a global turn to the East and South has already taken place. By the end of the year, we expect trade turnover at the level of 2019, import figures have already exceeded last year's figures. Thirdly, our business has shown a high ability to adapt - it was the first to rebuild logistics, set up calculations, and managed to find new markets both in terms of its supplies and in terms of purchasing the necessary products as part of Russian imports. Mikhail Matasov Deputy General Director of PJSC KAMAZ “Main risks can be said to have materialized, although they still remain. But so far, the economy - both the auto industry, and engineering, and in general - shows stability in relation to risks. Andrey Sharonov CEO of the National ESG Alliance “In my opinion, the opposite is true. They have not been implemented in the sense that a significant part of the sanctions are designed for a long-term nature. I don't think we've experienced everything yet. In this sense, the situation may become more complicated. In parallel, other processes are going on when new connections are being built, and they will mitigate the threats that have been created. But the problem with such decisions, such sanctions is that their effect can manifest itself for a long time, and it can grow.” Denis Pushilin Acting Head of the Donetsk People's Republic “I believe that the main sanctions risks have already been realized at the moment. And everything that our opponents could do from a serious point of view - they have already demonstrated it. Further, individual sanctions will probably increase. But, as we can see, they also do not give any serious effect, but, on the contrary, are to some extent a bonding factor within Russian society.” Andrei Chibis Governor of the Murmansk Region “In my opinion, the main ones have already been implemented. But it's completely obvious that the West will figure out all the chains of supply to us of the necessary components, equipment, component base and, of course, will try to close these chains and these companies, these routes. Therefore, the main [risks] have materialized, but, in my opinion, there is no reason to relax.” Vladimir Mazur Governor of the Tomsk Region “It's hard for me to say whether they will grow or have been realized. We do our daily work and don't really react to it or are afraid of it. We are working for an independent domestic market that will allow manufacturers to be [in good shape].” Evgeny Kozlov, Chairman of the Committee for Tourism of the City of Moscow “We have fully adapted to the new situation. We see that the demand for Moscow as a tourist destination for international tourists remains high. For example, In the first quarter of this year, the tourist flow from China has already shown a five-fold increase compared to the same period last year. Tourists from China came to us for business, cultural and educational purposes. In general, the growth rate of tourist flow for 2022–2023 from the Asia-Pacific region was 116%. Tourists from the Middle East also actively come. According to the results of the first quarter, the leaders are Iran andTürkiye. All major risks have materialized: the tourism industry has managed to cope with them. It was especially difficult for hotels and other accommodation facilities. So, they switched to new booking systems without losing demand. Now we can diagnose the restoration of the number of rooms in the post-COVID period. Tourists from the regions of Russia for three years provide more than 80% of the occupancy of the capital's hotels. At the same time, in general, the average annual level exceeds 60%, and during the holidays - an average of more than 70%. The situation has shown how quickly and professionally the industry can adapt, develop new scenarios, so the risks are not terrible.” Denis Butsaev General Director of the Russian Ecological Operator “It can be said for sure that we have learned how to quickly and efficiently adapt to new conditions and challenges. During all the sanctions packages, the country has increased the level of import substitution and in many areas is almost independent of foreign supplies. Therefore, the sanctions definitely did not affect for the worse, somewhere they even did a good deed. In our industry, the share of import substitution at waste sorting facilities reaches 80-100%. We are routinely replacing technologies from unfriendly countries, we do not see any problems. In some cases, new technological solutions are even more interesting than those that worked before the sanctions.” On whether the forecasts for spring 2022 came true Maxim Reshetnikov Minister of Economic Development “Indeed, the pace of economic recovery has exceeded our expectations. A year ago, even in the most daring calculations, it was difficult to imagine economic growth as early as 2023. However, today statistics show that we are still going even slightly better than the current forecast of 1.2% GDP growth. This is, first of all, the merit of the business, which quickly adapted to new conditions, did not abandon the projects it had started and continued to invest in new ones. Entrepreneurs took advantage of the chance and began to replace the vacated niches in the market.” Ruslan Davydov Acting Head of the Federal Customs Service of Russia “Forecasts basically coincided. First of all, regarding how he reactedimport. It was clear that the bulk of the imports that we need are not unique productions. Therefore, the dynamics of imports last year and this year was that after the imposition of sanctions, we experienced a sharp decline both in trade in general and in imports in particular. And then, in July, a recovery began, which today continues, if not a significant increase, then a progressive upward trend. With regard to export deliveries, here we can say that the West, mainly the European Union, is harming itself. They had the opportunity to buy cheap Russian energy, primarily pipeline gas. They, to the detriment of their own interests, their citizens and companies, are restructuring to purchase liquefied gas at higher prices, which, of course, is unprofitable for them. By refusing to purchase Russian energy resources, the West, in fact, harms itself, and this causes serious surprise.” Mikhail Matasov Deputy General Director of PJSC KAMAZ “We were preparing for a more intense economic scenario, we did not wait for the apocalypse, realizing our internal capabilities and strengths. But still, they were ready for the fact that the general economic situation would be more tense, more uncertain. It turned out that the economy quickly adapted. Accordingly, the auto industry in this general economic system turned out to be even more in demand than we predicted, which we see now in the automotive market, at least in the commercial segment, when it is significantly higher than our forecasts. It makes us happy, because we are working at full capacity.” Andrey Sharonov CEO of the National ESG Alliance “I think The predictions were worse than what actually happened. But I wouldn't be overly optimistic here. I would say that long-term processes that have been launched are difficult to predict, both in terms of sanctions that hurt Russia painfully, and in terms of building new chains that can provide fundamentally new options and increase Russia's stability, reduce and even eliminate to a large extent degree of impact of sanctions”. Andrey Nikitin Governor of the Novgorod Region “Certainly, the situation was a bit more complicated, somewhere, on the contrary, it showed good results. There has not been any critical situation with the timber industry, almost all enterprises have already found new owners and are working. Of course, not at the pace at which they worked in 2021, but the pace is growing and the forecast is positive. As far as the welfare of citizens is concerned, As head of the State Council Commission on Social Policy, I want to note that the improvement of this indicator is influenced by unprecedented measures to support citizens from the state. Our commission will initiate to continue the accelerated increase in the minimum wage, which is ahead of the cost of living in terms of growth.” Andrei Chibis Governor of the Murmansk Region “I confess that I expected much more severe damage at first. I can’t say that sanctions are nice. It was a challenge, together with companies we promptly formed supply chains and sent billions of rubles to support entrepreneurs. As a result, we have achieved projects for which years have fought, and these are truly points of growth for the economy and the region and the whole country for decades to come.” Vladimir Mazur Governor of the Tomsk Region “We have a development strategy for the Tomsk Region. There were no surprises - we are moving according to the approved strategy. And in general, thank God, there are no surprises here.” Anton Alikhanov Governor of the Kaliningrad Region “Yes, completely. I can’t say that I am pleased with the coincidence of my forecast, but it came true.” Evgeny Kozlov Chairman of the Committee for Tourism of the City of Moscow “Of course, the forecasts were different. But the positive one justified. The good news for us is that in the first quarter of 2023 alone, we are seeing a 10 percent or more growth in all major indicators in the tourism sector. During the May holidays alone, 1.85 million guests visited Moscow, which is 17% more than during the May holidays last year. A pleasant surprise was that many destinations are approaching pre-Covid levels. So, a special growth shows the direction of MICE. Last year, every fifth tourist came to the city for business purposes - on a business trip, to an exhibition, congress or forum. This segment of the tourism market fully recovered in 2022 and even surpassed the figures for 2019 by 6%.” On the need for new privatization Mikhail Matasov Deputy General Director of PJSC KAMAZinvestmentsand private ownership is more efficient than public ownership, yes. And vice versa". Mikhail Sukhov General Director of the ACRA rating agency “The topic of privatization should be treated as a promising project, where “waves” are not a very appropriate approach. It is worth looking for windows of opportunity for privatization, bearing in mind the interest of investors, both domestic and, in the future, from friendly countries that are tolerant of sanctions risks. Of course, it is always useful to combine the budgetary benefits associated with optimizing the value of the shares being sold with the attraction of new funds into the capital of issuers through the issuance of new shares or the provision of funds or technologies by a new investor. Unfortunately, for these purposes, such an instrument as bonds convertible into shares is not used enough. Increase in the volume of Russian shares traded on the stock exchange, is a good opportunity and an alternative to the shares of foreign issuers traded on the market, especially for the population focused on investing in the domestic stock market. I hope that private business and the stock market will maintain and, in a reasonable perspective, strengthen their positions for the purposes of economic growth.” Andrey Sharonov General Director of the National ESG Alliance “In general, when there is less money, it is necessary to unload the state. And we always said - in the nineties, in the two thousandths, especially in the Gref program (the liberal program, calculated until 2010. -), - privatization is not so much a fiscal moment, the importance of filling the budget, as an institutional one: to create a different structure of the economy, to enable entrepreneurial class to grow. This always increases flexibility, increases the number of options and solutions. Still, the state is such a form of mobilization, we are now living in a period of mobilization, so now it is difficult to talk about this [privatization]. On the other hand, there are always segments, sub-segments in which the presence of the state is completely optional, not critical, not useful, and, as a rule, less effective.” Alexey Chekunkov Minister for the Development of the Far East and the Arctic “It seems to me that this is some kind of cyclical process. We need to increase the role of private capital, but capital not as money in wallets, but as brains and energy. After all, an entrepreneur is a creator, a person who creates something out of nothing. If you give the dunce at least a billion dollars, at least ten, he will quickly lose them. And the right entrepreneur thinks about money last, and first about the economy, how to put together a project. In this part, even the implementation of such landmark infrastructure projects as the development of the Eastern Range [railways; BAM and Trans-Siberian], the development of the Northern Sea Route is possible with greater involvement of private initiative and the involvement of private capital than is being done now. Denis Pushilin Acting Head of the Donetsk People’s Republic “I can’t judge within the framework of the whole of Russia - I may not have enough data, but within the framework of the Donetsk People’s Republic I can absolutely say that the correct and effective management of a private investor has already given its result. And now, in a number of areas, we also see a way out of the current situation, that is, we see more serious prospects than pure public administration. To fully unleash the potential of the enterprise in the state administration, unfortunately, didn't work, we tried. Therefore, we are now, for example, attracting investors to the coal industry, since there are investors. Moreover, some enterprises have two, three [applicants]. This is just in contrast to what we heard very often, that the coal industry is subsidized, it is uninteresting. If it were so uninteresting, we would not see demand from investors now, even in the most difficult conditions, taking into account military aggression, but nevertheless people are ready to invest money, ready to invest, modernize and develop enterprises.” Alexander Shenderyuk-Zhidkov, senator from the Kaliningrad region “It is a very difficult question. It seems to me that if this wave of privatization is needed, it will be in a more stable economic environment. Therefore, I would not rush with it - you need to understand which companies left and which investors remained, then privatization will be more effective. Another thing is that we now see a large amount of liquidity in the market, which is in search of its application. And maybe for individual enterprises, for which we see very good indicators - even better than in February - partial privatization, perhaps, would be useful, but it should be done in the interests of the state and citizens. On personnel shortages Mikhail Matasov Deputy General Director of KAMAZ PJSC “It's good that they started talking about this. Because there is not only a shortage of personnel in the sense of workers, but there is a shortage of personnel with a focused professional need. Of course, we need to talk about this for a long time and resolve the issue, not just talk. I hope that the approaches that were announced by the President, the Ministry of Education and Science, the Ministry of Education, business initiatives, including ours (we are carefully approaching this), will bring their results. But it is not necessary to expect real tangible results, of course, earlier than on the horizon of five to ten years. Because for 30 years, unfortunately, education in general, and vocational education in particular, played a secondary or third role. And the system, of course, must change completely: as they say, from kindergarten and school to specialized vocational education.” Stanislav Bliznyuk Chairman of the Board of Tinkoff Bank “There is always competition, there are always some restrictions. We invest a lot in having a cool HR brand, so that we communicate with our future employees as early as possible. The phrase "staff shortage" is too extreme, but we feel that there is strong competition. First, what can I say: our HR brand is strong. Secondly, we were initially in the clearing of the young, lively and smart, so we are actively working with universities, and this gives us a significant advantage. If we talk about “hunger” fundamentally, then if you look at the indexation of salaries on average in Russia and for IT specialists, you will see that the indexation of salaries for IT specialists is twice as high on average. And this trend did not start yesterday, it is already five or six years old, and if it continues, then there are quite scary numbers. To solve this problem, we need not to reduce the number of companies that need IT specialists, but to expand the funnel of IT specialists that these companies need. And this is one of the tasks of our university (Tinkoff Bank registered its own university in May - ANO "Central University. -)". Alexey Chekunkov Minister for the Development of the Far East and the Arctic “On the one hand, people are the most important thing for the success of any business. Of course, we do not have enough managerial and engineering personnel, workers. But, on the other hand, the guys learn very quickly, nature does not tolerate a vacuum. I see that young entrepreneurs have enough energy and ambition to take on new challenges, new tasks - the economy is pulling out projects. I had the good fortune to see the start of many projects from scratch, in fact from an empty tundra. These are, for example, such projects as Kolmar and the Zvezda shipyard - it was in a completely different capacity when it all began. I remember that we were looking for welders all over the world during the day with fire, we were dragging welders from Turkey. And now an international level educational center is being created there, which will train people of working specialties for the entire Russian shipbuilding industry. Therefore, you need to believe in your plan, and when you see such results that already show their effectiveness, this belief is reinforced by real life.” Andrey Chibis Governor of the Murmansk Region “Everyone, without exception, feels the shortage of personnel, at least those with whom I communicate, both large companies, and large regions, even large metropolitan areas, because the main battle today is for people, the main competition is for people . And we all fight for the best in our profession. Therefore, naturally, there is a shortage of personnel.” Andrei Nikitin Governor of the Novgorod Region “Unemployment in Russia remains at a record low. But, of course, there is a need for personnel. This is largely due to the fact that plants that operate in the defense industry, began to work with a large increase in state defense orders. In general, the country should note the serious work on the development of secondary vocational education. This is evidenced by the results of professional skill championships, where young guys show excellent results in their training and skills. Everything we have done in this area over the past five years has not been in vain.” Vladimir Mazur, Governor of the Tomsk Region “This is not about a shortage of personnel, but about retraining and quick orientation [to sectors] where it is necessary to train personnel. To do this, in general, we have all the professions: engineering, and in the agricultural sector we have quite good achievements [in personnel training]. Therefore, we do not see famine [in the Tomsk region]. But we must quickly focus on training [personnel].” Evgeny Kozlov, Chairman of the Committee for Tourism of the City of Moscow “We have calculated that every 14th workplace in the city is associated with the hospitality industry. And, of course, we see a great demand for new personnel in tourism, so we are reformatting our work with the industry. So, the first tour guides and guide-interpreters were certified the other day (mosturism recently launched a new service, with which specialists can submit an online application for certification). We have developed support measures that allow the industry to develop despite all the challenges. So, grants for event organizers are popular. So the recipe for overcoming staff shortages is to be sensitive to the industry, to be in constant dialogue and to provide the necessary and working tools in response.” Alexey Vostokov General Director of the gold mining company Polyus Polyus is a large mining company operating in a difficult climate in remote areas. Therefore, attracting personnel specific to our industry and their training is always a priority for us. Qualified personnel for industry is always a scarce resource. We started competing for them a long time ago and we are doing it very successfully. We have many programs to attract personnel and, let's say, nurture them from school: internships, career guidance events, corporate training programs, We started competing for them a long time ago and we are doing it very successfully. We have many programs to attract personnel and, let's say, nurture them from school: internships, career guidance events, corporate training programs, We started competing for them a long time ago and we are doing it very successfully. We have many programs to attract personnel and, let's say, nurture them from school: internships, career guidance events, corporate training programs,work with personnel reserve. On Promising Professions Yaroslav Kuzminov, Research Supervisor, Higher School of Economics “I think that professions related to task setting and business analytics will develop very quickly. With the fact that it is associated with the ability to use digital services, the collection and - importantly - the processing and analytics of data. Because in the end, the new opportunities that digital technologies provide are the collection of the entire array of data that is relevant to your task. All the programs of classical universities that form a certain model of thinking - from history to mathematics - they will all be relevant, because they do not pretend to provide the final technology and the final profession. A crisis, the expected restructuring awaits engineering and technology specialties and mass intellectual performance - mass lawyer, mass economist. If the graduates of, say, economists are about 50,000 people a year, then only one in ten of them really has the ability to analyze and set goals. And this is a very mild assessment. The rest will need to look for other niches. What will these niches be? I am sure that they will be connected with two directions: it is all around data (how to use the possibilities of digital services) and it is “soft technologies” - communications, design, how to sell yourself, how to make yourself noticeable. These are physicists and lyricists, nothing has changed in this respect.” Svetlana Chupsheva General Director of the Agency for Strategic Initiatives “High demand will remain for working professions, personnel in the service sector, especially in the hospitality industry.IT. There is also a shortage of professionals in narrower categories - managers of complex, multi-component projects, entrepreneurs. We need new formats for training such specialists, including, first of all, training within the framework of the project approach, combining opportunities and support measures from the state, business, education and science.” Andrey Nikitin Governor of the Novgorod Region “Of course, in modern realities, the most demanded professions are engineering, medicine, high technologies in agriculture. Such specialists are needed throughout the country for the development of our production, engineering, other major industries and science. These competencies require training already at the stage of schools, therefore, in the regions, including the Novgorod region, agricultural classes, space classes, 1C classes, and medical classes are being opened. Special attention, of course, should be given to the employment and employment of students and graduates. The functionality of the Jobs in Russia portal is currently being finalized to fully implement the opportunities to conclude electronic agreements on internships and internships there. First of all, this should be done in priority sectors for the most demanded specialties. In this case, gaining work experience while still a student will allow you to apply for a higher salary at the beginning of your career.” Evgeny Kozlov, Chairman of the Committee for Tourism of the City of Moscow “Our industry can no longer do without the digitalization of solutions, the introduction of sustainable development technologies, and mastery of marketing. We have calculated and understood that tourism today includes about 40 areas of activity. For specialists in the hospitality industry, we conduct relevant training programs. They are free for all participants. For example, these are the youth program “Your Start in Tourism” and the advanced training courses “School of Hospitality”, which allow you to keep up with the times. The response is good: we receive thousands of applications and there is a competition of several people for a place.” Ruslan Sarkisov Managing Partner of the Voskhod Foundation “Engineering and IT specialties, medical professions, natural sciences, social professions, teachers. The ability to critically analyze a lot of information will be important, as well as the ability to communicate - no one has canceled this skill. Ruslan Sarkisov Managing Partner of the Voskhod Foundation “Engineering and IT specialties, medical professions, natural sciences, social professions, teachers. The ability to critically analyze a lot of information will be important, as well as the ability to communicate - no one has canceled this skill. Ruslan Sarkisov Managing Partner of the Voskhod Foundation “Engineering and IT specialties, medical professions, natural sciences, social professions, teachers. The ability to critically analyze a lot of information will be important, as well as the ability to communicate - no one has canceled this skill.

RBC also asked businessmen who own companies that have taken the place of departed Western brands about the past and future of Russian enterprises. What was the last year for them, what do they expect from the future and what are they planning - read in the RBC material :