In the power of China: what will happen to the Russian economy in the

next 10 yearsand Europe. Demid Golikov, DIRECTOR of the ARB Pro company,

The share of CHINA in world GDP, according to the IMF, has grown from 4 to 18% from 1990 to 2022 and will continue to grow until it reaches about 25% (purchasing power parity). The share of the United States over the same 30 years has decreased from 20 to 16% and will most likely not recover in the next 10–15 years. The share of Europe will also fall.

China has already become a world leader in many industry-setting industries: telecoms, automobiles, rail and infrastructure, and electric batteries. In addition, it remains number one in the assembly industry. Therefore, the Chinese authorities quite naturally ask: “Why is the world still living according to the Western order: the status quo principle in international relations, the UN, liberal values, the DOLLAR, the English language?”

Why the Russian economy depends on the position of China

What does the forecast for the development of the Russian economy look like in 2023? Ambiguous. The fork in 2022 turned out to be more abrupt than the fork in the times of covid-19 , the global financial crisis of 2008, and even the crisis of the Soviet economy in the 1980s. After all, no matter how great the scale of losses at that time, the general vector of the development of events was clear. Now this is not so. I believe that the situation in RUSSIA will depend on whether China continues its confrontation with the US and Europe or not. I'll explain why.

In the mid-1990s, Russia created about 4% of global GDP, and in 2022 - about 2.5% in terms of purchasing power parity (data from Rosstat and the IMF). However, after the start of the NWO, many countries stopped seeing it as a partner both in the trade and political spheres. Now Russia is a hard-to-replace raw material supplier, which is uncomfortable to deal with. Agree, it is wiser to isolate yourself from such a supplier. Why look for compromises?

Until 2022, the Chinese authorities could consider Russia as an intermediary in relations with the West - diplomatic and logistical - but now it is useless in this role. Now the Chinese can keep Russia as a fallback, for example, in the purchase of oil and timber, as an additional branch of the Silk Road, or as a political probe to test ambiguous thoughts: what will the world do if we annex Taiwan or continue to reclamate islands in the neutral waters of Southeast Asia.

India needs Russia. The most populous country in the world intends to achieve economic parity with China, and for this it will need oil discounts and precedents for resolving problems with neighbors by force.

The interests of China and India are tactically beneficial to Russia, but this is not something that will transform the world balance of power in our favor.

Now let's look at what scenarios China's interaction with the West can develop.

How will the Russian economy develop

Scenario No. 1. China is looking for a compromise with the US and the EU