On March 24, the Moscow Exchange will launch trading in shares. What to look out for

On March 24, transactions with Russian shares will resume at the Moscow Exchange. RBC Investments tried to estimate the approximate price levels of some securities, and also asked experts about

The last time shares were traded on the Moscow Exchange was February 25. Then the Moscow Exchange index rose by 20.04% to 2470.48 points after a record collapse the day before. On the same day, the RTS index closed up by 26.12%, at the level of 936.94 points. This was followed by a weekend, during which it became known about the blocking of external gold and foreign exchange reserves of the Bank of RUSSIA and the disconnection of some commercial banks from the SWIFT system. On Monday, February 28, trading in Russian shares did not open.

Since then, the financial authorities have taken a number of measures to stabilize the stock market at its opening. The Central Bank banned Russian brokers from selling securities   on behalf of foreign clients. The government decided to legally limit the exit of foreign investors from Russian assets. In addition, the Ministry of Finance announced that in 2022 it will allocate up to ₽1 trillion from the National Wealth Fund (NWF) to purchase shares of national issuers   .

On March 18, Elvira Nabiullina, Chairman of the Bank of Russia, announced the resumption of OFZ trading on March 21. On the first day of trading, the RGBI index of Russian government bonds fell by 9.44% to 98.21 points, while yields adjusted in line with the new level of the key rate. Other factors also influenced the dynamics of bonds - from the downgrade of sovereign ratings to transactions by the Central Bank itself, which warned in advance that it would enter the market with purchases.

But the stock market, which is scheduled to restart on March 24, is not as strongly correlated with the key rate as the debt market. Quotes of companies operating in different industries will be influenced by various parameters - this is the limitation of operations due to sanctions, and the change in the DOLLAR exchange rate, and logistical problems, etc.

So far, only 33 stocks from the Moscow Exchange index will be available for trading from 9:50 Moscow time to 14:00 Moscow time. At the same time, investors will not be able to make transactions with securities, the initial placement of which took place on foreign sites, for example, Yandex, X5 or TCS Group. Short selling will also be prohibited.

What can happen when the Moscow Exchange is opened

Dmitry Puchkarev, an expert on the stock market at BCS Mir Investments, expects a positive movement in shares. At the same time, the analyst admits a decline at the start of trading, but he notes that the purchases of the Ministry of Finance will support the Russian market. “Moreover, given the share of exporters in the Moscow Exchange index of more than 50%, it is likely that the index will rise after a long pause relative to the levels of February 25,” the expert noted.

Georgy Vashchenko, HEAD of trading operations on the Russian stock market, Freedom Finance: “We believe that at the opening the prices of most securities will be close to the levels of the previous close. At the beginning of trading, quotes may fall amid the closing of margin calls, but in general, in our opinion, there are a large number of buyers in many securities. Recovery of the Russian market is quite likely. The stock market of Iran has grown by about 20 times in 4 years.”

Konstantin Asaturov, DIRECTOR of equity at Sistema Capital, also believes that the equity market is more likely to rise in the near term. Among the supporting factors, the expert singled out: a ban on the sale of shares by non-residents, a ban on short sales, attractive levels of securities, a limited opportunity for residents to invest or withdraw capital.

Interesting stocks in the new exchange paradigm

Dmitry Puchkarev, an expert on the stock market at BCS Mir Investments: “In our opinion, exporters and commodity companies may look better than the market: metallurgists (Nornickel, RUSAL, NLMK), gold miners (Polyus), oil and gas (Lukoil, Rosneft, Tatneft, etc.) .), ALROSA.

The expert also noted companies focused on the domestic market, which may be worse than the market, among them: banks (Sberbank, VTB), telecommunications (MTS, Rostelecom), electric power industry (Inter RAO, RusHydro), developers ( PIK), IT sector.

Analysts of ATON also singled out commodity companies such as Norilsk Nickel, LUKOIL, Gazprom, ALROSA, Polymetal, RUSAL among the favorites. In addition, experts named Sberbank, TCS Group, Yandex, Magnit, VK, AFK Sistema, which will win as the economy recovers, as well as infrastructure companies: Globaltrans, NCSP, energy.

Oleg Syrovatkin, Leading Analyst of the Global Research Department at Otkrytie Investments: “We like exporting companies that either have a large market share or their share is not so high, but the market is very important. It will be very difficult to refuse their products, which minimizes the imposition of harsh sanctions against their products. For example, these are Gazprom, Lukoil, Rusal, Norilsk Nickel, Alrosa. Rapidly rising world food prices are making fertilizer producers such as Phosagro more attractive, while global inflation is pushing up demand for gold. Therefore, Polyus looks good here, which operates in a promising sector and has the opportunity to sell its products domestically.”

Konstantin Asaturov, director of equity department at Sistema Capital, also singled out exporters as the main contenders for adding to the portfolio. At the same time, he noted that he does not advise taking shares of companies from the non-commodity market, since their long-term performance is vague, "given the high uncertainty of both the ruble exchange rate and consumer activity in the country."

Asaturov also emphasizes that investments   in Russian assets at the current point will be made not so much in order to earn on dividends, but on the growth of quotations in the longer term.

Follow the news of the companies in the TELEGRAM channel "Catalog of RBC Investments"

A person who issues securities. The issuer can be both an individual and a legal entity (companies, executive authorities or local governments). A financial instrument used to raise capital. The main types of securities: shares (gives the owner the right of ownership), bonds (debt security) and their derivatives. Read more Investment is the investment of money to generate income or to preserve capital. There are financial investments (purchase of securities) and real ones (investments in industry, construction, and so on). In a broad sense, investments are divided into many subspecies: private or public, speculative or venture, and others. More