USA: Production figures. Myths and reality

Last week we discussed the situation in our industry with one of the manufacturers. We had a good dialogue about the current level of productivity. This conversation got us thinking about howmyths about production performance differ from reality. We used the latest available database from MetaFarms, which contains information on 1.1 million sows in the United States, CANADA and Australia. These are 3,000 closed growing batches and 8 million pigs from fattening to sale. Such an extensive database reflects the real state of affairs.


Average weight of growing pigs: 53.6 lbs (~24.31 kg). Average weight of finishing pigs: 286.6 lbs (~130 kg).

Let's analyze it. According to MetaFarms, the average number of pigs weaned per sow per year is 26.6. Average sow mortality: 15.3%, average nursery mortality: 2.82%, average finisher mortality 4.8% (7.6% overall), average finisher feed conversion: 2.86. These are all real results from a truly extensive database. Top 10%: 30.8 pigs weaned per sow per year, sow mortality: 7.5%, nursery mortality: 1.04%, finisher mortality: 2.35% (3.4% overall), feed conversion: 2.62.

MetaFarms data provides a clear picture of production status. Although it can be assumed that in general it is probably even better than the industry average, since there is a high probability that the manufacturers participating in a project like MetaFarms are among those who are making considerable efforts to improve their production performance. MetaFarms data continues to reflect problems with sow mortality rates, which average 15.8%. It is clear that as the number of facilities where pregnant sows are housed in group pens increases, there are genetics that cannot cope with this method of housing. This is further compounded by prolapse problems in sows supplied by a well-known genetics company.

Feed If the US

Department of Agriculture 's (USDA) current projections for the nation's 2024 crop are correct, we can expect relatively low feed costs next year. The USDA is forecasting a record soybean and corn harvest of more than 15 billion bushels. Twice the annual harvest exceeded the 15 billion mark, this is the first time in the history of record keeping. In cash transactions, the average US corn price is now less than $3.60 US/bu, while soybeans are priced at $9.18 US/bu, a far cry from the $8.00 US/bu corn and $17.00 US/bu soybeans in the previous crop year. We have seen that pig production costs in farrow-finish operations are now around 87¢c/lb ($1.92 US/kg), down significantly from over $1.00 US/lb ($2.21 US/kg).

Lower prices for grains and oilseeds in the United States are reverberating around the world, lowering the break-even threshold for all pork producers.

It's good that feed prices have come down for pork producers, we really need that, although even with these lower feed costs, futures prices for slaughter pigs with 53-54% lean muscle yield will be in the 70¢ range over the next few months cents/lb ($1.54 US/kg), indicate that producer losses would be in the range of $30.00 US/head (with a cost of production of 87¢c/lb ($1.92 US/kg)). At the same time, we think that there are certain dynamics that should support pork prices, we mean exports to Mexico - CHINA , high prices for beef , but our reality is that it seems that consumers are not ready to pay us a favorable price, despite that in the United States, slaughter weight beef carcasses sell for $3.15 US/lb ($6.95 US/kg) and slaughter weight pork carcasses sell for $1.00 US/lb ($2.21 US/kg).

The latest data from the US Pork Producers Council shows that consumers' protein choices are driven by taste, nutrition and convenience. Please note that taste comes first, but as an industry we persist in producing pork that could taste better. I don't understand why we can't accept this reality, even with low feed costs, production is likely to be unprofitable for at least the next six months. We are glad that the Pork Producers Council is now thinking about addressing the taste issue, but unfortunately, if producers continue to use genetics that produce pork that tastes more like cardboard , both the demand for our product and the profitability of our industry will suffer.