In the Russian Federation, meat production, its export and processing are growing - FSBI "Center for Agroanalytics"
Pork remains the main source of animal protein in the world , its output annually exceeds the production of any other type of MEAT. In 2020 alone, more poultry meat was produced than pork. In 2019–2020 global production of animal protein has fallen sharply due to large outbreaks of ASF in CHINA and Southeast Asia. Due to ASF, pork output in China, which is the world's main consumer of this type of meat, has decreased by more than 20 million tons; in Vietnam, an entire herd of sows was destroyed in a short period of time. Southeast Asian countries needed to increase import supplies of all types of meat to cover the domestic deficit and reduce high prices.
To cover the deficit in the domestic market, China began to rapidly increase imports . Before ASF, China imported about 1 million tons of pork annually, but already in 2020, imports amounted to about 4.5 million tons; Spain increased its exports to China by 5 times, from 200 thousand tons in 2018 to 1–1.1 million tons in 2021, Brazil — from 50 thousand tons to 0.5 million tons, the usa — from 80 thousand .t to 0.7 million tons in 2020 (in 2021, the figure decreased to 0.4 million tons), Denmark — from 70 thousand tons to 350 thousand tons.
China also began to increase imports of substitute products, such as beef and poultry . Poultry meat exports to this country increased from 0.5 million tons in 2018 to 1.5 million tons in 2021. Brazil is the main supplier of poultry meat, shipments from this country to China doubled, from 0.3 million tons in 2018 to 0.6–0.65 million tons in 2021. The United States did not have permission to supply poultry meat to China in 2020, but when it was received, exports immediately amounted to more than 0.4 million tons, in 2021 - 0.45 million tons.
During 2019–2022 In China, high prices for meat were maintained due to its shortage. Contrary to all the forecasts of Western experts, who expected a recovery no earlier than 2027, already in the second half of 2022, China fully restored domestic pork production and increased the production of poultry and cattle . China's imports have fallen sharply, causing overproduction in the domestic markets of the largest suppliers. This has led to sharp price fluctuations, and in many EU countries the price of pork has become lower than that of chicken meat.
Western countries are currently facing two factors that will force them to reduce meat production: the spread of ASF in the EU and the spread of bird flu, including in the US. About 10% of laying hens have been wiped out in the United States due to bird flu, which has led to a record increase in the price of food eggs and a number of restrictive measures. In Poland, in 2022 alone, more than 1.8 thousand outbreaks of avian influenza were recorded (including in agricultural organizations - 44) and 1.7 thousand outbreaks of ASF, in Germany - more than 1 thousand, respectively (incl. 71 in agricultural organizations) and 357 outbreaks, in France - 1.9 thousand outbreaks of bird flu (including 1.5 thousand in agricultural organizations). The epizootic situation in neighboring countries also remains unfavorable and alarming.
China now accounts for approximately 28–30% of global meat production. Pork is the most popular in the country, thanks to which China's share in the global production of this type of meat is just under 50% (55 million tons in 2022). In recent years, China has quickly restored pork production to pre-ASF levels. According to the updated USDA forecast, pork production in China in 2023 may exceed the level of 2022 by 0.5 million tons and reach 55.5 million tons.
The undisputed leader in the production of poultry meat remains the United States, which is also the main global supplier of the genetic material of meat chicken crosses, which are used by most of the largest countries producing broiler meat. In 2022, US poultry production was 21 million tons, and in 2023, according to the USDA forecast, it could increase by 0.3 million tons to a record 21.3 million tons. Brazil and China are tied for second place: in In 2022, they produced 14.3 million tons of poultry meat each, with Brazil being the largest exporter of this product, and China its largest importer. In 2023, Brazil may increase poultry production by another 0.6 million tons compared to 2022 levels.
Due to the high cost of beef, its production in the world remains relatively stable from year to year. The leader in the production of cattle meat and one of its largest exporters is the United States, which produced 12.9 million tons of this product in 2022. The second place is occupied by Brazil (10.4 million tons), the third - by China (7.1 million tons). In 2023, US production may fall by 0.7 Mt due to adverse weather conditions and higher feed costs in 2022, which led to a reduction in the number of herds in some states.
In 2022, RUSSIA accounted for about 4–4.5% of the world production of the main types of meat: according to preliminary data from Rosstat (the agency will publish the final data in May 2023), the output of this product in the country amounted to 11.7 million tons. In the structure of meat production in the Russian Federation, the largest share falls on the production of poultry meat (5.3 million tons in 2022), pork is in second place (4.5 million tons), and cattle meat is in third place (1.6 million tons). Pork has shown the highest growth dynamics in recent years.
With the growth of domestic meat production in Russia, its consumption is also growing: in 2022 it amounted to more than 79 kg per capita, which is an absolute record. Poultry meat consumption exceeded 36 kg for the first time, while pork consumption has increased by 9 kg over the past seven years. At the same time, the consumption of cattle meat in recent years has remained at the same level: the market is stagnant, since the peak of consumption within the country has been reached - this trend is observed all over the world. In 2023, meat consumption in the Russian Federation, due to the projected increase in the capacity of existing production sites and the construction of new facilities, may increase to 81 kg per capita.
The leader in the production of poultry meat in the Russian Federation for many years has been the Central Federal District: in 2022, its share in the total output amounted to 37%, or 1.9 million tons. In second place is the Volga Federal District with a share of 23%, or 1. 2 million tons, the third is Yuzhny with a share of 9%, or 0.5 million tons.
Poultry meat production in the Central Federal District has grown by 20% or 0.33 million tons over seven years.
The Central Federal District has also been the leader in pork production for many years: it accounts for 52% of the output, or 2.3 million tons in 2022. The second place belongs to the Volga Federal District (16%, or 0.7 million tons), the third - at Sibirsky (9%, or 0.4 million tons).
Pork production in the Central Federal District increased by 60% or 0.8 million tons over seven years.
The leader in the production of cattle meat in Russia is the Volga Federal District with a share of 28%, or 0.5 million tons in 2022. The second place is occupied by the Central Federal District (19%, or 0.3 million tons), the third is the Southern (16%, or 0.25 million tons).
With the growth of meat production in Russia, the volume of its processing is also growing. In 2022, the output of meat and meat-containing chilled and frozen semi-finished products amounted to 4 million tons, which is 11.44% higher than in 2020, and in the first two months of 2023, production increased by 7.5% compared to the level of 2022 over similar period. The production of sausages and smoked products in 2022 amounted to 628 thousand tons, exceeding the figure for 2020 by 4.7%, and in the first two months of 2023 it increased by 6.1% compared to the last year's level. The output of sausages (including products for baby food) in 2022 amounted to 2.4 million tons, which is 3.5% more than in 2020; in the first two months of 2023, production increased by 2.3% compared to the level of 2022 for the same period. The production of boiled, including stuffed, sausages in 2022 amounted to 1.6 million tons, which is 3. 1% higher than in 2020, and in the first two months of 2023, the output increased by 1% compared to the level of 2022 for the same period. The production of chilled meat, meat-containing culinary products and products from poultry by-products in 2022 amounted to 163 thousand tons - 11.44% more than in 2020, and in the first two months of 2023 increased by 10% compared to the previous level of the year.
Also in recent years, there has been a tendency in the Russian Federation to reduce imports and increase exports of meat. In 2022, for the first time in history, Russian exports of meat and by-products exceeded their imports, amounting to just over 0.5 million tons. Poultry meat remains the EXPORT leader , pork is in second place, and cattle meat is in third. By the end of 2022, China is the leader among importers of meat from the Russian Federation, Belarus is in second place, Kazakhstan is in third , followed by Saudi Arabia (its share has grown significantly) and Vietnam .
It should be noted that Russia mainly supplies poultry meat to China , mainly chicken feet and the ulnar part of the wing: these products are of the highest value in the Chinese market. Chinese import statistics in recent years show that paws used to occupy 32–34% in the structure of poultry supplies, now their share has increased to 43–45%. This indicates an increase in demand for legs and wings, as well as a lack of demand for other parts of the bird due to high domestic production.
Pork from Russia is mainly imported by Belarus, Vietnam, Kazakhstan and Mongolia. It should be noted that not so long ago the Russian Federation received permission to supply pork to Vietnam, and this is an important event. There is no principle of regionalization of the supply of pig products in the world, the issue of its resolution is acute, so that the regions / regions in a particular country have the right to supply pig products for export in the event of a favorable epizootic situation (absence of ASF in the region). Export deliveries from the Russian Federation to Vietnam are a great opportunity to establish yourself as a supplier of quality products.
In addition to the usual export products, Russia supplies turkey meat abroad - its exports have increased by more than 8 times since 2019. The main buyers of these products are China, the countries of Africa and the Persian Gulf.
In 2022, cattle meat from Russia was supplied to China, Belarus, Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan and Saudi Arabia.
In general, the dynamics of meat production and its export from the Russian Federation is positive, this trend may continue in the coming years. It is important for the pig industry to prevent outbreaks of ASF in their enterprises and to establish themselves as suppliers of quality products abroad in order to open new markets for export. It is necessary to improve the quality of the exported product. For example, in China, the cost of chicken paws is very high, while in the Russian market these productshas no demand, so it is profitable for the manufacturer to supply paws to the Chinese market. However, in the Russian Federation, the separation of the paws is carried out by cutting along the bone with a violation of the bone marrow, while in China, cutting is carried out along the joint - this is the method that significantly increases the value of this product. It is necessary to study in more detail the national needs and characteristics of the population of different countries that import our products - this will allow us to gain a foothold in new markets.