Remarkable dynamics in the global poultry industry

In the absolute increase of 67.6 Mt over the decades under review, Asia accounted for 73.3%, followed by Central and South America at 13%. All other continents were far behind. The relative growth in Africa (4.5%) was even higher than in Europe and North America. Until 1988, egg production in Europe was higher than in Asia, but since then, several Asian countries have experienced extraordinary growth.

Significant changes at the country level

Over the past 50 years, the composition and ranking of the leading egg producing countries has changed significantly. Until 1985, the United States was in first place , then they were replaced by CHINA , which remained the undisputed number one in subsequent years.

A closer look at the dynamics reveals some notable changes. Between 1990 and 2020, India rose from sixth to second place and overtook the US. Indonesia, which was not a top 10 country until 2000, has risen to fourth place and has since increased egg production by 4.5 million tons.

If in 1970 there were 6 European countries in the first group ( Germany , France , Great Britain , Italy , Spain and Poland ), then in 2020 only France remained, which ranked tenth. A noticeable dynamic development was also demonstrated by the growth in production in Brazil, Mexico and since 2010 in Turkey. By contrast, Japan dropped from third to seventh place, and production in the former Soviet Union, which had been second until 1990, plummeted following the economic collapse in RUSSIA. In 2020, the Russian Federation took only 8th place.

The first interim balance sheet can be summarized as follows. World egg production more than quadrupled between 1970 and 2020 to 87.1 million tonnes. Parallel to this significant increase came dramatic changes in geography. Europe and North America have lost their leading positions to Asia, Central and South America, which accounted for almost 3 quarters of global production in 2020. In the course of this dynamic development, the composition and ranking of the leading countries has changed significantly.

If in 1970 the usa and the USSR were the leading egg producing countries, then in 2020 China and India took the first 2 positions. In 1970, the top ten included 6 European countries (excluding the USSR). In 2020, only 1 European country remained, i.e. France was in tenth place. This comparison graphically describes dramatic changes in the spatial pattern of global egg production.

The volume of trade in eggs is relatively small

In contrast to poultry MEAT, the volume of eggs sold is relatively small. During the decades under consideration, only 1.8% (2000) to 2.8% (1980 and 2010) of products were exported. The reasons for this low trade volume are the fact that eggs cannot be frozen and have a relatively short shelf life. Most eggs are produced for domestic consumption. Nevertheless, exports (and imports ) are of great economic importance for a number of countries. 

 Clearly, Europe has dominated the egg trade for the last 50 years. In 2000 alone, exports of eggs from Asia were higher. On all other continents, the egg trade was of secondary importance. Europe has had a trade surplus throughout the period under review, as has North America since 1980. Africa, Central and South America have had negative trade balances in all decades, as has Asia (with the exception of 2010).

Significant fluctuations in egg imports at country level

The composition and ranking of the top 10 egg importers also fluctuated significantly, with the exception of Germany. it is worth noting the changes in the ranking of a number of EU member states over the decades under review, such as France, the UK, the Netherlands and Italy. France was in third place in 1970, then dropped to tenth in 1980, rising to fifth and fourth place in 1990 and 2000 respectively before dropping back to ninth in 2020. A similar trend was observed in the UK . Belgium and Singapore started importing eggs in 1990 and in 2020 ranked fourth and fifth respectively.

The Netherlands is of particular interest. Although they were eighth in 1970, in 2020 they have become the second largest egg importing country. This is because Dutch investors bought and/or built large egg farms in eastern Germany after the country's reunification. They then shipped the eggs produced on these farms to the Netherlands, either for EXPORT or for further processing. This transfer appears in the FAO database as an import for the Netherlands and an export for Germany. Until 1980, the USSR imported eggs from other countries, but stopped importing after the collapse of its political and economic system.

In 2020, the Russian Federation again began importing eggs to provide the population with animal protein due to a sharp drop in pork production caused by outbreaks of African swine fever. Due to the Gulf War, Iraq's egg industry was hit hard, so that imports became necessary to meet domestic demand. Since 2010, the country has ranked second among the top 10 importing countries. As egg production began to recover, imports have declined since 2020. In 2020, the United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia imported a large number of eggs for domestic consumption and further export to other countries in the Arabian Peninsula.

The regional concentration in imports of eggs has reached the same values ​​as in exports; however, it declined between 2010 and 2020 as a result of rapid growth in imports from Russia and West Asia. Between 1970 and 1990, the top three countries accounted for over 50% of world imports, with a peak of 55.1% in 1980. In subsequent decades, regional concentration has been lower and in 2020 the top three countries imported only 38.3% of egg imports that were traded globally.

It is worth noting the change in the share of Germany in world egg imports. Between 1970 and 1990, the country imported between 32% and 39.5% of the eggs that entered the world market . Since then, this share has fluctuated from 28.7% in 2010 to just 17.7% in 2020. From 2010 to 2020, import volumes fell by 100,000 tons despite rising per capita consumption. This was made possible by a significant increase in the number of poultry by more than 10 million chickens during this decade.

Summary and outlook

The analysis presented here shows significant growth in global egg production and dramatic spatial shifts. What were the decisive innovations and driving factors behind this success story? The first innovation was the use of hybridization technology in the breeding of laying hens. It began in 1950 in the US and was moved to Europe in the late 1950s. Specialized breeding companies began to sell hatching eggs and chicks worldwide.

The second innovation was the design of cages with automatic feeding, water supply, egg collection and manure handling. This drastically reduced the labor required and made it possible to raise much larger herds. 

The third innovation was the development of vaccines against Newcastle disease (1954) and Marek's disease (1972). These treatments improved the HEALTH of laying hens and reduced mortality to less than 5%.

A very important guiding factor was the development of mixed feed with special additives that improved the nutrition of chickens. It also contributed to the health of the hens and greatly increased egg production. The combination of these factors has made it possible to produce a large number of eggs with high nutritional value at a reasonable cost for a growing world population.

It is worth noting that a similar trend has developed in the organization of egg production all over the world: vertically integrated companies. Since no religious barriers prohibited the consumption of eggs, production and consumption increased, resulting in a spatial shift in the main centers of production.

If in 1970 Europe and North America accounted for almost 2/3 of world production, in 2020 their share fell to 21.8%. In contrast, the share of Asia, Central and South America was only 30.7% in 1970, but reached 74.1% in 2020. China and India together shared 42.0%. Of the 6 European countries that were in the top ten in 1970, only 1 remained in 2020. This clearly describes the dramatic change in the global egg production model.

Although the egg trade represents less than 3% of world egg production, it is of great economic importance to the leading exporting and importing countries. Europe dominated the egg trade over the period analyzed in this article, and it was not until 1990 and 2020, respectively, that Asia achieved a higher share of exports and imports. Europe has also been the only continent with a positive trade balance in the last 50 years. North America has had a trade surplus since 1980, and Asia only in recent years.

At the turn of the century, the egg industry began to face new challenges. One is the animal welfare debate, which in the EU has already led to a ban on conventional battery cages since 2012 and the introduction of new housing systems such as enriched cages, floor systems and free-range systems. This will also drastically reduce the number of chickens kept in conventional cages over the next 2 decades, as evidenced by developments in the US, CANADA and New Zealand.

The second problem is the threat of the avian influenza virus, which has caused catastrophic epidemics since 2015 and has become endemic in many countries. The success of vaccines against Newcastle and Marek's diseases may show a way out of this existential threat.

Despite these challenges, egg production and egg trade will increase due to growing demand in a number of bridging and developing countries. The spatial pattern will remain stable. Europe and North America will lose their share of production, but Europe will be able to maintain its leading position in the egg trade. While a few companies and startups have been successful in making and selling plant-based egg substitutes, they won't reach double-digit volumes until 2030.