"Milk" for women, or How "meat" grows

The market for alternative proteins will grow extremely rapidly, optimists promise

The global market for alternative protein by 2035 may grow 7.5 times to $ 290 billion and 97 million tons. These are the calculations of analysts from Boston Consulting Group (BCG) and Blue Horizon in a joint study "Food for Thought: Protein Transformation".

Blue Horizon specializes in investments in the production of alternative proteins. 

The total protein consumption in the world will grow by an average of 3% per year and will reach 872 million tons - against 587 million tons in 2020. Thus, in every tenth plate, "meat", "dairy" products and "eggs" will be fully produced from alternative proteins.

If technological changes move faster, then the proportion of alternative protein could be twice as high, the authors of the study predict. At this rate, Europe and North America ( usa and CANADA) will reach the peak of "meat" in five years, and the consumption of animal protein there will actually begin to decline.

conservative view

Analysts at Research and Markets, which calls itself a leader in industry research, estimated the global market for alternative proteins for human needs in 2019 at less than $15 billion (the only open figures), that is, 2.6 times less than BCG and Blue Horizon estimates for the last year. Research and Markets expects an average annual market growth of only 14% until 2025.

The CEO of Entoprotek (feed protein supplements from insects) Ivan Sokolov calls the forecast of BCG and Blue Horizon optimistic. He believes that it is realistic, but very difficult, to occupy 10% of the market of all consumed proteins, especially in monetary terms: “Products from alternative proteins remain niche, gastronomic entertainment.”

There are usually three types of alternative proteins and products.

Who eats more

North America and Europe are the most mature markets for animal protein alternatives, according to BCG and Blue Horizon study authors. The share of these regions is likely to continue to grow rapidly due to the fact that their inhabitants are leaders in the fight against climate change and the commitment to healthy eating, the researchers state.

But the greatest potential for market development is in the Asia-Pacific region, among the growth drivers of BCG and Blue Horizon are the largest population and its growth, and with it increasing demand for protein along with increasing wealth. By 2035, this region will account for two thirds of the world's protein consumption.

Oat river, almond banks

So far, MILK has been mainly replaced with alternative proteins  - more than 75% of the entire alternative protein market, write BCG and Blue Horizon. and  RUSSIAnot an exception. Over the past three years, Russian sales have grown by 38% in money terms and by 36% in real terms in the category of plant-based milk and dairy products, Marina Balabanova, regional vice president for corporate relations at Danone, cites data from the Nielsen Scantrack panel. This is also confirmed by retail chains: sales of vegetable milk in Magnit stores grew by 3.3 times in physical terms in 2020, among the favorites are oatmeal, buckwheat, almond and oat-chocolate, says a representative of the retailer. He attributes this to the growing trend towards a healthy lifestyle. The main consumer of vegetable milk - residents of megacities under 40 years old, leading a healthy lifestyle, fond of sports, loving to cook, coffee and drinks based on it, gives them a characteristic of Balabanov. 

Buyers most often purchase such milk in large volumes, in liter packages, the representative of Magnit notes, this may indicate that the consumer has tasted the product and is ready to purchase it for daily use.

Assessing the market for plant-based products in developed European countries, we can safely assume that the category in Russia is very promising and has great potential, Balabanova argues. In Russia, the shortage of milk is about 3.6 million tons per year, recalls Maxim Bakhtin, managing DIRECTOR and partner of BCG in Moscow: new technologies can make it possible, at least partially, to close this need.

Apparently, manufacturers are aware of this. In March 2021, Danone launched the production of vegetable drinks in the Krasnodar Territory - coconut, almond, oat - under the Alpro brand. At the initial stage, this will cover 35% of the company's Russian sales in the plant segment, says Balabanova, the company will continue to import the rest from Belgium.

The first mass production of vegetable drinks in Russia was launched three years ago by the largest domestic juice producer Sady Pridonya. Under the Nemoloko brand, the company produces drinks based on cereals - oats and buckwheat. "Sady Pridonya", according to its own data, occupy 75% of the Russian market of drinks alternative to milk, in kind, wrote "Interfax".

eat grasshopper

Global food giants, seeing the growing popularity of alternative protein, and with it a threat to their traditional business, are trying to lead the process. The largest MEAT producer in the world, American Tyson Foods, back in 2016 bought 5% BEYOND MEAT, which makes minced meat and burger patties from artificial meat. During the IPO, investors valued the innovative company at $1.5 billion, but already on the first day of trading, its capitalization doubled. True, by that time Tyson Foods had exited the capital of Beyond Meat, and because of the conflict: the founders of Beyond Meat found out about the plans of the "big brother" to independently produce products from alternative plant-based protein. 

Over the past few years, PepsiCo has also been eyeing a new direction - protein from insects. But if a few years ago the company was cautious and limited to grants from its PepsiCo Nutrition Greenhouse accelerator, then in January this year, PepsiCo announced a partnership with Beyond Meat: together they will launch a joint venture to develop, manufacture and sell new snacks and drinks based on plant protein. The details of this cooperation in PepsiCo have not yet been distributed.

Russian companies are also experimenting with vegetable meat. The biggest producer of vegetable oil and mayonnaises, Efko Group (brands Sloboda, Altero, etc.), has advanced the furthest in this matter. At the end of last year, the group launched Hi vegetable burgers (from the English Healthy Innovations, “healthy innovations.” - VTimes) for commercial sale, shipping the first batch of products to the East-West distributor. The latter cooperates with restaurants, and now burgers with cutlets from Efko can be tasted in Moscow restaurants #Farsh (Novikov Group project) and Fresh, as well as in Buro.tsum.