RAS experts saw the "offensive" of Russian business on the crisis

A third of the enterprises surveyed by the Institute of the Russian Academy of Sciences have begun the modernization of production. The proportion of those who reduce investment spending has decreased.

Russian business in 2022 showed high adaptive abilities: although two-thirds of enterprises consider themselves affected by sanctions, more and more entrepreneurs are fighting the crisis “offensively”. Experts from the Institute for Economic Forecasting (INP) of the Russian Academy of Sciences came to this conclusion after analyzing the results of a survey of enterprises. RBC got acquainted with the study.

132 enterprises took part in the INP RAS survey, which took place in November-December last year, which is less than in previous similar surveys. According to the authors of the study, the causes and nature of the crisis influenced the willingness of enterprises to participate in the survey. “As the range of sensitive information that businesses choose not to disclose expanded significantly in 2022, some of our long-term survey participants took a break and did not complete the questionnaires,” they explain. The previous survey on a comparable range of questions was conducted in April-May 2022 (at that time, questions related to sanctions were added to the questionnaire). In general, such surveys on business issues have been conducted in the Russian Academy of Sciences since at least 2004, follows from the report.

Adapting to sanctions

In general, the survey data confirm the information about the relatively mild course of the economic crisis and the high adaptive activity of Russian companies, notes the INP RAS. While two-thirds (66.2%) of businesses said they were affected by the sanctions and 14.6% believe they could be affected in the future, the proportion of businesses that report no negative impact from sanctions is relatively high at 19.2%.

Compared to the spring survey, by the end of 2022, the share of answers about the use of “exactly active” adaptation methods by businesses has increased significantly, the authors of the study state.

For example, the share of enterprises that reported the start of restructuring of production (modernization, repairs, etc.) grew especially strongly - from 14.8% in April-May to 33.1% in November-December. The share of answers about the reduction of investment costs fell from 36.9% to 30.7%.

Read on RBC Pro “Yes, yes, they won’t be fined”: five myths about new tax noticesand gas from RUSSIA In Russia, a new tax "simplification" is being introduced. To whom it is not available

“More and more Russian enterprises are choosing offensive strategies to deal with the crisis,” the authors say. According to them, this indicates that many domestic companies have "serious resource capabilities and competencies that allow them to develop even in very difficult conditions."

Relatively mild passage of the crisis is also evidenced by the responses of entrepreneurs about lending, the Institute of the Russian Academy of Sciences points out. The share of enterprises receiving loans from banks in 2022 did not decrease, but increased. True, working capital was mainly credited - the number of enterprises that received loans for investment needs practically did not increase, the authors of the study state.

Russian business focused on "survival" Economics

The results of another business survey conducted in November by the Expert RA rating agency, the Institute for Comprehensive Strategic Studies and the Institute for the Economics of Growth. P.A. Stolypin, on the contrary, testified to the low availability of loans for business. Thus, 17% of the participants in that survey reported that raising borrowed funds for their companies is completely unavailable, and 80% considered rates on loans for business development and collateral requirements of banks to be too high.

“There are no options - naturally, everyone had to change their logistics, raw materials chains, look for new partners abroad, discover a new product or a new business direction, yes, but I repeat, there are no options, and we need to move, especially since at least there is an Internet Rostislav Rovbel, CEO of Terra Global Logistics, told RBC. “Countries like Turkey or the UAE were associated exclusively with tourism for me, but now I am in these countries only for business,” he added.

In the new realities, Russian companies quickly realized that the sanctions pressure would be long-term and deep, says Alexei Kuchmin, a member of the General Council of Delovaya Rossiya. According to him, even when establishing new trade ties, businesses have to face logistical difficulties: such negative factors as the lack of a fleet of containers, the risks of shipping in the Black Sea due to military operations, restrictions on the import of goods from CHINA associated with latest outbreak of covid-19. “It is too early to judge the success in adapting business to new conditions, since it may take several years to fully overcome this challenge. However, Russian business has unequivocally demonstrated its viability against the backdrop of the uncertainty that has arisen,” sums up Kuchmin.

Concerns about corruption

The survey also showed an increase in business concerns about a possible increase in the level of corruption against the backdrop of sanctions. To the question “What measures to counter economic sanctions, in your opinion, should the Russian authorities take?” 31.5% of respondents chose the answer “Strengthen the fight against corruption”. In the spring of 2022, the share of those who answered this way was 23.3%.

This may signal that "the expansion of state support for enterprises may be accompanied by attempts by a number of officials to benefit personally from participation in the distribution of additional budgetary funds," the authors of the study suggest. RBC sent a request to the Prosecutor General's Office.

In April 2022, Mikhail Barshchevsky, plenipotentiary representative of the government in the Constitutional and Supreme Courts, admitted that against the backdrop of the sanctions crisis, the level of corruption in Russia would increase “on a colossal scale”, because “the stronger and stronger the state, the more power it has, the higher the level of corruption."

According to the results of the latest survey of the Chamber of Commerce and Industry "Business Barometer of Corruption" (respondents - entrepreneurs and civil servants), in 2022 the number of those who directly encountered corruption decreased from 69.3 to 58.2%. About 30% of respondents (regardless of whether they personally experienced corruption or not) indicated a significant increase in the level of corruption under the influence of sanctions, although 21.5% noted a slight impact of sanctions on the growth of corruption.

In the INP RAS survey, the proportion of those who consider the high level of bureaucracy and corruption in government bodies to be a big problem for business has grown: this option was noted by 20.8% of respondents (in the previous survey - 18%). However, there are fewer entrepreneurs complaining about the "lack of normal laws governing economic activity" - 14.4% versus 19.3% a year earlier (on these points, the Institute of Economic Forecasting compares the results with the November-December 2021 survey). The number of those who point out the "inaction of state authorities in the economic sphere" has also decreased - 15.3% against 18% a year earlier.

The embassy explained Russia's withdrawal from the anti-corruption convention Politics

DIRECTOR of the Institute for Growth Economics. P.A. Stolypin, Anton Sviridenko called the results of the IPN RAS survey on corruption alarming. He suggests that, to a certain extent, the growth of fears of corruption may have been influenced by “procedures for the distribution of state support” – somewhere, perhaps, “dishonest ways of fighting for it are used.” In addition, there are more “uncertainties” in the legislation, which state bodies can interpret in different ways. According to Sviridenko, against the backdrop of new procedures and rapid changes (for example, in the field of parallel imports), new corruption factors may arise.

In addition, the reaction of business may indicate that the “old” level of corruption it “will not pull”, in the new situation the economy should increase efficiency, and the state should pay much more attention to the fight against bribery, Sviridenko believes.

“In an environment where not all entrepreneurs understand how the rules have changed, officials have a window of opportunity for dishonest use of their powers, which, of course, increases corruption risks,” says Dina Krylova, HEAD of the HSE Anti-Corruption Policy Project and Training Laboratory. “As you know, a significant proportion of corruption is associated with the fact that there is red tape, all sorts of difficulties appear that the entrepreneur does not always know how to overcome.”