Experts assess Russia's dependence on imported gas turbines

Russia's dependence on the import of gas turbines is more than 90%, the country does not have its own production of high-capacity turbines, the HSE warns.These turbines are used in modern CHP and gas power plants

The Russian power engineering industry, like many sectors of the economy, faced a “critical failure” of import supplies after the start of a special operation in Ukraine on February 24 and the imposition of Western sanctions. This is stated in the report of the Center for Comprehensive European and International Studies (TsKEMI) of the Higher School of Economics, received by RBC.

The removal of sanctions restrictions in the coming years is unlikely, so RUSSIA, along with the launch of import substitution programs, will have to first find opportunities to replace imported suppliers, the authors of the report note. In their opinion, CHINA 's competence in the production of components for gas turbines may be of interest first of all , although this category of suppliers will act cautiously given the risk of secondary sanctions.

How many turbines were supplied and from where

As of 2019-2020, in the critical areas of Russia's dependence on imports - gas turbines and components - more than 75% of imports came from countries that have imposed sanctions on Russia. So, in 2020, the Czech Republic and CANADA accounted for 33 and 30%, respectively, of the total volume of imports of small-capacity gas turbines (less than 5 MW), the usa and France - 22 and 8%, another 4% - to Ukraine. The United States also provided 41% of imports of turbines with a capacity of more than 5 MW, Great Britain - 25%, Sweden - 20%, Japan - 5%. Imports of medium and large-capacity turbines in 2020 amounted to $93 million, hydroturbines and small-capacity gas turbines — $70 million each. But imports of components for gas turbines (including blades for them) accounted for the most — $255 million.

“Russian manufacturers have all the necessary competencies [for the production of gas turbines]. Products from Asian countries will be considered as a last resort, ”the press service of the Ministry of Industry and Trade insists. RBC sent inquiries to the largest manufacturers in the field of power engineering - the United Engine Corporation (UEC), which is part of Rostec, and Alexei Mordashov's Power Machines.

Which industry is most dependent on imports?

The most acute situation is in the production of gas turbines, one of the most high-tech sub-sectors of power engineering, according to a study by TsKEMI. The experts of the center refer to the data of the Ministry of Industry and Trade on the share of imports in this segment in 2014 - 80-100% - and argue that since then "the situation has not seriously changed." The ministry itself did not comment on this data.

Where are gas turbines used?

Power engineering products are used in the electric power industry (thermal, gas, nuclear, hydro, wind, etc.) and industrial production. The key products are turbines and turbine engines (excluding aircraft, auto and motorcycle engines), steam boilers, nuclear reactors.

Gas turbines are the most important part of combined cycle plants (CCGTs) used at modern thermal power plants and gas-fired power plants. They help save fuel, water and reduce CO2 emissions. The principle of operation of the CCGT is based on the fact that the gas turbine plant receives purified air and high-pressure gas, the combustion products of which enter the waste heat boiler, where water is converted into heated steam under high pressure and drives a traditional steam turbine.

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The main problem is the lack of an established production of Russian high-capacity turbines (more than 100 MW) and blades for gas turbines, where the share of imports in consumption is 100%, notes the main author of the study, researcher at TsKEMI, deputy HEAD of the international economic research sector Alexander Zaitsev. At the same time, the production base has been formed for turbines of small and medium power. However, gas-fired thermal power plants account for a relatively small share of energy generation in Russia (15%) and could potentially be replaced by medium-sized steam or gas plants, the authors of the report note.

Power Machines to make gas turbines to replace Siemens Business

Now in Russia, several projects are being implemented to create production facilities for gas turbines of large and medium capacity, remind the Ministry of Industry and Trade. Thus, UEC is launching the production of GTD-110M gas turbines, Power Machines is implementing projects for the industrial production of gas turbines GTE-65 and GTE-170. UEC subdivisions are also implementing projects for the creation of industrial gas turbine units GTU-12PD and GTU-16PD with a capacity of 12 and 16 MW. Already, interested organizations are beginning to switch to contracting with Russian developers, which objectively contributes to the development and acceleration of the production of serial samples, the ministry notes.

UEC-Saturn and Power Machines plan to cover the need for new turbines by 2030, according to a study by TsKEMI. However, there remains a need to service imported turbines operating in Russia and to find replacements for supplies from the EU and the US, at least for the next few years, the authors warn.

Deputy Minister of Energy Yevgeny Grabchak said in the spring of 2022 that the Russian energy sector has enough resources to ensure and maintain energy supply to industry for two years. “There are two years. The power industry on the resources that are now available will last two years without a decrease in the quality and reliability of energy supply, ”he assured. One of the largest heat generating companies, T Plus, has already faced a service problem for foreign equipment, including gas turbines, due to the departure of many foreign companies from Russia, as well as due to a shortage of spare parts, its head Andrey Vagner said in June 2022 : “Some companies take on manufacturing with a time lag of one and a half to two years. This inspires optimism. On the other hand, we are now adjusting to this time interval. We understand that we can endure a year without services.”

Who can replace Western turbines

The share of China and other countries that have not joined the anti-Russian sanctions in the supply of gas turbines and components is less than 7%. An increase in Chinese imports of various types of gas turbines is unlikely - the country has not created a serious production base for this, according to a study by TsKEMI. According to the report, Beijing could potentially supply Russia with components for gas turbines. In 2019, China ranked ninth among the world's exporters of these products. Imports of components for gas turbines amount to $557 million per year, with exports worth $435 million.

Anti-Russian restrictive measures complicate interaction with Chinese business, the main threat is the risk of falling under secondary sanctions, the authors of the study warn. But China already has experience and mechanisms for building economic ties with countries under international sanctions - Iran and North Korea. Despite the current restrictions, the largest Chinese state-owned companies are implementing projects in these two countries, including, among other things, the supply of equipment in the field of power engineering.

Iran can also help Russia with the replacement of Western gas turbines. “In the field of gas turbines, Iran has achieved modern technologies, which has led to the signing of contracts with Russian power plants for the repair,” Iranian Minister of Trade, Industry and Mines Reza Fatemi Amin said at the end of May during a meeting of the joint Russian-Iranian commission on economic and trade cooperation. . According to him, Tehran is ready to carry out barter deals with Moscow on the exchange of metallurgy products for auto parts and gas turbines.

Negotiations with Iran have already been confirmed by some Russian generating companies. “We, like everyone else, are in negotiations on Asian countries and with Iran, which has already developed good competencies in terms of equipment,” Andrey Vagner, head of T Plus, said on June 20.

In what industries is Russia less dependent on imports?

The most developed of the sub-sectors of Russian power engineering is the production of equipment for nuclear power. Russia provides not only the domestic market, but is also the largest player in the world market (a third of world exports), according to a study by TsKEMI. Equipment for the nuclear power industry generates $900 million in Russia's EXPORT earnings. Nuclear power plants generate 19% of all electricity in the country.