Meat burns on the grill. Prices for lamb and pork are rising for the May holidays

The cost of lamb and pork in RUSSIA began to rise on the eve of the May holidays. In the first case, the decline in supply plays a role due to supply restrictions from the Southern and North Caucasian federal districts, in the second, the seasonal factor. So far, manufacturers are warning retail chains about a 5-25% price increase, and retailers expect increased demand.

Maxim Titov, DIRECTOR of the Department for Regulation of Agricultural Markets, drew attention to the rise in prices for certain types of MEAT before the May holidays at a meeting of the operational headquarters of the Ministry of Agriculture on April 29, said a participant in the meeting. According to Rosstat, since the end of March, prices for pork, except for boneless meat, have increased by 1.7%, and by 4.3% since the end of 2020. Over the same periods, mutton has risen in price by 1.6% and 7.4%, respectively. In March, the average prices for mutton were at the level of 455.79 rubles. per kg, for pork - 276.26 rubles. per kg.

The Verny network noted an increase in pork prices by an average of 2.3% compared to last week. Dmitry Ilyukevich, HEAD of the farming and handicraft business at Azbuka Vkusa, said that the chain had received notifications of price increases from lamb and pork producers ranging from 5 to 25%.

Albert Davleev, President of Agrifood Strategies, says that the increase in the price of mutton before the May holidays is a direct consequence of restrictions on the supply of this meat from the Southern and North Caucasian Federal Districts, the main regions of mutton producers.

ROSSELKHOZNADZOR introduced restrictions on July 1, 2020 to obtain the status of a FMD-free zone for several regions of the Russian Federation from the International Epizootic Bureau. The Rosselkhoznadzor said that a decision could be made as early as May. But restrictions have already led to a decrease in lamb production in the first quarter of 2021 by 5.9% year-on-year, Mr. Davleev points out. Damate Group of Companies and ABH Miratorg, which are engaged in the production of lamb, did not answer questions.

Director General of the National Union of Pig Breeders Yuri Kovalev says that in the case of pork, we are talking about a seasonal rise in price that occurs every year.

The head of the National Meat Organization, Sergei Yushin, adds that the end of Lent, which in 2021 coincides with the long May weekend, plays a role. According to him, the rise in prices will gradually come to naught as the supply of pork and poultry increases. In March, the supply of poultry meat increased by 12%, to 380 thousand tons, pork - by 9%, to 309 thousand tons month-on-month, follows from the data of the National Union of Poultry Breeders.

Retailers themselves, meanwhile, are preparing for increased demand for these products. Metro says that every year before the May holidays they see a surge in consumption of up to 15%, and this year is no exception. Auchan expects an increase in demand for meat due to the announcement of a long holiday, and has doubled orders.

The Ministry of Agriculture said that they expect a decrease in the cost of feed in the coming month due to EXPORT duties on grains and oilseeds, which will support livestock enterprises and prevent a sharp increase in prices for their products. But Albert Davleev notes that it is impossible to quickly increase the supply of lamb due to the long cycle of reproduction, therefore the shortage of this meat will still remain.

Director General of the National Union of Poultry Breeders Sergey Lakhtyukhov does not expect that rising prices for pork and lamb will lead to an increase in demand for poultry meat.

According to him, in order to change consumer preferences, the difference in cost should be more significant. More likely, an increase in purchases of poultry meat from processors, who quickly change the recipe based on the prices of raw materials, says Mr. Lakhtyukhov.