The USDA has updated its 2023 global pig production forecasts.

General context

An increase in global pork production is expected due to an increase in production in CHINA. China 's domestic demand is expected to strengthen as a result of the lifting of restrictions under the zero covid policy. Strong demand from Asian countries will boost global pork exports, with the European Union, Brazil and the United States being the main suppliers .

Global pork imports should increase and be supported by the Chinese and Philippine markets. With lower pork import tariffs in the Philippines and ASF continuing to stifle local production, higher import volumes are forecast for the country.

Forecasts for other countries have not changed significantly.

Country Forecasts

Latin America is expected to show the highest regional growth, with production reaching 8.05 Mt, representing a 2.5% increase from 2022 (7.86 Mt). Similarly, exports should increase by 4.7% to 1.9 million tons, while imports and apparent consumption should increase by 0.1% and 1.4%, respectively.

 Asia will increase its production by 0.2% to 62.4 million tons, thanks to increased domestic supplies from China and Vietnam. Imports are forecast to increase by 1.8% to 5.7 million tons.

In the Americas, production is expected to increase by 1.8% to 22.6 Mt. Imports will decrease by 5.4% to 2.58 Mt, while exports will increase by 1.0% to 6.2 Mt .

Production on the European continent will fall by 0.8% to 28.2 million tons. Similarly, exports are expected to fall 5.2% to 4.3 million tonnes.

 Africa will increase its production by 1.1% to 0.5 million tons, while Oceania is expected to decline by the same amount and reach a volume similar to that of Africa.

Main producing countries

China , which will account for 48.2% of global production, is projected to produce 55 million tonnes, the same volume it is expected to reach in 2022. Imports are expected to increase by 2.4%, which will reach 2.1 million tons. .

Production in the European Union will decrease by 0.4%, reaching 22.6 million tons, while its exports are expected to reach 3.95 million tons, which is 4.8% less than in 2022. On the other hand, imports are estimated at 145,000 tons, representing an increase of 20.8% over the previous year.

The United States is expected to increase its production by 1.8% to 12.5 million tons, and exports are expected to increase slightly by 0.2% to reach 2.9 million tons.

Japan will become the second largest importer of pork in the world with 1.5 million tons, although imports will decrease by 2.6%.

Brazil will increase production by 2.0%, reaching 4.4 million tons. Exports are also expected to reach 1.4 million tons, up by 3.9%.

Mexico's production is up 4.6% to an estimated 1.6 Mt. Mexico will maintain its position as the world's third-largest importer and Latin America's largest, despite its imports being estimated to fall by 2 .7%. this year, reaching 1.24 million tons.