Annual inflation exceeded 8%

Annual inflation for the week from 9 to 15 November accelerated to 8.1% from 8.07% a week earlier, follows from the review of the Ministry of Economic Development "On the current price situation." At the same time, the growth rate of food prices continued to decline and amounted to 0.19% against 0.29% and 0.44% in the previous two weeks. The agency explains this dynamics by the deflation of fruit and vegetable products: they fell in price by an average of 0.35% after a rise in price by 0.5% a week earlier. In general, food products excluding vegetables and fruits rose by an average of 0.26%, as in the period from 2 to 8 November.

Year on year, food prices, according to the review of the Ministry of Economic Development, increased by 10.64%, since the beginning of the year - by 8.36%. Including fruits and vegetables in annual terms rose by 22.26%, since the beginning of the year by November 15 - by 9.7%. Cabbage became the leader in terms of price appreciation in annual terms among the main food products: prices for it increased by 94.2%. Potatoes are in second place (plus 73.57%).

The Ministry of Agriculture warned the government about possible problems with the potato harvest and an increase in wholesale prices. At the end of October, the cost of potatoes from producers reached 23 rubles / kg, which is 71.4% higher than the same period last year. Vegetables of the “borscht set” are also becoming more expensive: the cost of carrots has increased by 44%, cabbage - by 70%. Including growth is explained by the difficulties in harvesting due to adverse weather conditions. The Ministry of Agriculture, together with the Ministry of Industry and Trade, with the participation of retail chains, are developing a project to increase purchases of products in the CIS countries instead of far abroad, which should help reduce prices. In addition, the agricultural department is developing a federal project to increase the production of vegetables and potatoes, as well as organizing the infrastructure for their storage and sale.

In the category of MEAT products, compared to mid-November last year, chickens have risen in price most of all - by 31%. Pork prices increased by 15.88%, beef - by 14.43%. Rising prices are also the result of a decrease in supply against the backdrop of an unfavorable epizootic situation. According to Rosstat, in January-October, the production of poultry for slaughter in agricultural organizations decreased by 1.3% to 5.09 million tons in live weight. Pork production increased by 0.9% to almost 4 million tons in live weight. The National Union of Pig Breeders predicts that at the end of the year, output volumes will remain approximately at the level of 2020, while an increase of 5% was previously expected. The Ministry of Agriculture expects that pork production will recover in the first half of 2022; for poultry meat production, the agricultural department expects to reach 2020 levels by the end of this year.

Among other food products, there was a double-digit increase in prices for buckwheat (20.59% yoy), FLOUR (11.21%), eggs (27.6%), vermicelli (12.77%), sunflower oil (12.97%). %).

The Central Bank sees the risk of another sharp rise in food prices in 2022 . Kirill Tremasov, DIRECTOR of the monetary policy department of the Central Bank, told the international forum of the Moscow Exchange about this, TASS reports. He attributed this to a not very good harvest in the world and did not rule out that the situation could repeat itself next year due to higher prices for fertilizers. The Central Bank's inflation forecast for this year is 7.4-7.9%.

The HEAD of the Central Bank, Elvira Nabiullina, speaking in the State Duma on November 18, confirmed this forecast and called for reducing price increases as soon as possible, since the most vulnerable groups of the population suffer first of all from this. “The lower the income of a person, the more products occupy his personal consumer basket, which means that inflation hits him first. If we miss inflation now, then the least protected groups of the population will suffer, ”Nabiullina quotes