The fall in non-oil and gas budget revenues was the highest in 1.5 years

In April 2022, non-oil and gas revenues of the federal budget, excluding inflation, fell by 18% compared to the same month a year ago. This is the largest decline since August 2020.

Non-oil and gas revenues of the federal budget (VAT, income tax, proceeds from state property, etc.) in April 2022 showed a decrease in nominal terms by 18% compared to April of the previous year, follows from RBC’s calculations based on data from the Ministry of Finance on budget execution, published May 17th.

Last month, non-oil and gas revenues amounted to just under 1.06 trillion rubles, the Ministry of Finance reported. For comparison: in April 2021, non-oil and gas budget revenues amounted to 1.29 trillion rubles, follows from the data of the department. This is the most significant decline in such revenues since August of the pandemic 2020 (minus 24% in annual terms).

Consumer prices in April 2022 increased by 17.8% compared to April last year, the Ministry of Economic Development reported. Thus, taking into account inflation, non-oil and gas budget revenues in April would have fallen even more.

In March 2022, the nominal decrease in non-oil and gas revenues of the federal budget was 11% compared to March of the previous year. But then the dynamics was distorted by one-off revenues to the federal budget in March 2021 from the sale of Sberbank shares (200 billion rubles) and the environmental fine of Norilsk Nickel (145.5 billion rubles). Excluding these one-time payments, non-oil and gas revenues in March 2022 grew by 8% year-on-year.

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In April, oil and gas revenues received due to high oil prices , even taking into account the "sanctions" discounts on Russian fuel, significantly exceeded the collection of non-oil and gas revenues - 1.81 trillion rubles. against 1.06 trillion rubles. In March and the first quarter of 2022, the situation was reversed.

Domestic VAT in April 2022 was formed in the amount of about 192 billion rubles. - two times less than in April of the previous year (414.7 billion rubles). VAT on imported goods - 212.5 billion rubles. against 330.5 billion rubles. the same month a year earlier. The actual situation in the economy in 2022 should have been reflected for the first time in domestic VAT collections for April: companies that are part of the general taxation system paid part of the VAT until April 25 based on the results of work in the first quarter of the year.

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At the same time, the press service of the Ministry of Finance told RBC that “it is incorrect to talk about a reduction in domestic VAT revenues for one month, since this is a quarterly tax.” The decrease in cash receipts in April does not speak of quarterly receipts in January-March 2022 and is due to the acceleration of tax refunds, including for exporters, the Ministry of Finance explained. Under Russian law, exporters can recover VAT included in the purchase price of, for example, raw materials.

“The decrease in revenues from import VAT is associated with a reduction in imports, as well as the strengthening of the ruble exchange rate in April of this year,” the Ministry of Finance told RBC.

In the expenditure side, there is noticeably ahead financing of the National Defense sections (1.68 trillion rubles of expenditures, or 43.6% of the revised annual plan, were completed in four months), housing and communal services (261.4 billion rubles, or 54.9%) , Healthcare (almost 616 billion rubles, or 44.1%), Social Policy (2.56 trillion rubles, or 41.9%).

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As a result, in April 2022, the federal budget deficit was formed in the amount of 262.3 billion rubles. According to the results of four months of the year, a surplus in the amount of 1.04 trillion rubles is still recorded.

it is rather difficult to predict budget revenues in 2022, since it is not clear how sanctions and counter-sanctions will affect it, “the spiral of which continues to unfold,” Andrey Chernyavsky, an economist at the HSE Development Center, noted in April. “Probably, greater clarity with the formation of income is formed in the middle of the year. Federal budget spending compared to the plan for 2022 will be reformatted. Their total volume will be determined under the influence of geopolitical problems, the acceleration of inflation, the existing reserves of the Ministry of Finance and additional opportunities for financing expenses, ”he wrote.

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