Virologists assessed the possibility and timing of a new wave of COVID-19

A new peak in the incidence of CORONAVIRUS is quite possible, DOCTOR of Biological Sciences, Professor of Moscow State University Alexei Agranovsky told RBC.

“Firstly, the Omicron group appeared, including the Centaur, which already exist in RUSSIA. They are extremely contagious, at the level of measles or chickenpox, ”the virologist explained the new increase in cases.

In addition, according to Agranovsky, the increase in the incidence in the coming autumn is associated with social activity, that is, with the return of citizens to universities, schools, and work after holidays. He warned that a new wave of coronavirus could last from a month to two.

In Russia, for the first time since the beginning of April, more than 18.5 thousand cases of covid were detected Society

An increase in the incidence is quite possible due to overcrowding of the population after holidays and vacations, says Sergey Voznesensky, Associate Professor of the Department of Infectious Diseases of the Peoples' Friendship University of Russia. He noted that last year the growth took place in June-July, and in August-September there was a decrease. “It is quite expected that in a few weeks the situation will stabilize with the incidence of covid-19 and we will even see some figures for a decrease in daily incidence,” the virologist commented.

Both experts noted that the new types of strains, omicron and centaur, are easier to tolerate and require less hospitalization.

“The number of deaths when infected with them is less compared to the strains of the first waves of the epidemic. Gradually, this infection turns into the category of habitual ARVI, Agranovsky specified. - How many cases, it is essential for specialists, but for society it is not so important. I do not foresee the overflow of infectious diseases hospitals.”

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“Therefore, with a certain degree of probability, we can continue to predict that hospitalization will be required for a small percentage of patients. Now it is about 8% of the registered cases, ”added Voznesensky. In his opinion, the increase in the incidence is related to how widely the virus will spread and how significant herd immunity will be.

August 5, 11:00 Moscow time Coronavirus Russia Moscow World +18555 (per day) 18.7 million Infected 0 +47 (per day) 382.6 thousand Died +6149 (per day) 2.8 million Infected 0 +15 ( per day) 44.5 thousand Died +1404579 (per day) 582 million Infected 0 +3113 (per day) 6.4 million Died Source: JHU, federal and regional headquarters for combating the virus

“Now, according to experts, herd immunity is about 16% - these are those who have been ill or have been vaccinated within six months from today's date. Unfortunately, the figure may be higher than 50 thousand at the peak of the incidence,” the expert concluded.

As of August 5, 18.5 thousand infected were detected in Russia - the maximum after April 1. Due to the increase in the incidence, Roskomnadzor ordered the most vulnerable groups of people to wear personal protective equipment.

The Kremlin announced the alarming dynamics of the coronavirus Politics