The Ministry of Transport warned of the risk of reducing flights to China by

70 %may fall by 60-70% due to problems with the registration of Russian aircraft and the risk of their arrest, according to the Ministry of Transport. In order to increase traffic

Passenger air travel between RUSSIA and CHINA could be reduced by 60-70% compared to pre-pandemic levels, according to a letter from Deputy Transport Minister Valentin Ivanov, which he sent to Opora Rossii President Alexander Kalinin on February 16. RBC has a copy of the letter, its authenticity was confirmed by a representative of Opora Rossii.

In 2019, Russian companies transported almost 3 million people on flights between China and Russia. According to this indicator, China was in the top 10 most popular countries for Russian airlines. Based on Ivanov’s forecast, passenger traffic on this route in 2023 may drop to 0.9-1.2 million people.

The reduction in traffic between the countries is due to the lack of guarantees from Beijing that it will not delay aircraft at the request of third countries (due to Western sanctions), as well as a ban on flights to China of aircraft with dual registration (simultaneously in Russia, Bermuda or in Ireland), Ivanov explained.

However, if there is an accessible air service, including from the regions of Russia, the passenger flow between the countries can reach 5 million people, Gleb Kinder, vice president of Opora Rossii, told RBC. But now flights to China are carried out mainly from Moscow and several cities in the Far East and Siberia, which is "very few," he warned.

Airlines announce problems with flights to China Business

Why businesses do not have enough flights to China

The need to develop air traffic with China, which has practically not been for three years since February 2020, due to Beijing's fight against the COVID- 19 pandemic , is explained in Opora Rossii by the interests of business. Good logistics are essential for developing relationships with China, negotiating and signing contracts, Kinder explains. According to him, after the introduction of international sanctions against Russia due to the conduct of a special military operation in Ukraine, "European partners have ceased to be reliable" for solving the problems of modernizing Russian enterprises, in the supply of equipment and components.

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“Therefore, it is very important for us to have a fast, convenient logistical route for traveling to China. In the same way, Chinese partners want to fly to Russia, and we see business delegations of Chinese companies in Moscow that arrive as soon as [new options for] air communication between our countries appear,” says the Vice President of Opora Rossii.

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In addition to business, China and Russia are attractive for tourists. During the pandemic, the situation with hotels in Russia has improved, so Chinese citizens , given the existing travel restrictions, are interested in visiting the maximum number of Russian cities for tourism purposes, Kinder says.

For a massive flow of tourists from China to Russia, air travel between the countries is really not enough, agrees Marina Levchenko, general DIRECTOR of the Tari Tour travel company. According to her, due to the rise in the cost of air travel, hotels and meals, the cost of tours for Chinese tourists has increased by one and a half times compared to pre-pandemic levels. The demand of Russians for tours to China can also be described as very cautious, notes Philip Obruchev-Mironov, HEAD of the commercial department for outbound tourism at Intourist. “Requests are received for both group and individual tour programs. But only a few reach real bookings. There are constant questions about visas, the possibility of visa-free visits to China, mandatory travel insurance and coverage of covid-19 with standard medical insurance, ”he adds.

How it is proposed to increase the number of flights

Now Aeroflot has the most frequencies in the Chinese direction among Russian carriers, which flies from Moscow to Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou (three times a week to each of the cities) and Chengdu (once a week). As demand resumes, the frequency of these flights could be increased, a spokesman for the carrier said. From Chinese carriers, according to ATOR, Air China and Hainan Airlines fly from Beijing to Moscow. IrAero and Aurora fly from Irkutsk and Khabarovsk to Harbin, respectively. Yakutia is going to start flights to the same Chinese city from Yakutsk in April, said its general director Andrey Vinokurov.

IrAero intends to expand the geography of flights to China at the expense of Manchuria and Sanya, said its spokesman Nikolai Bessonov. Azimuth airline received permits from the Russian aviation authorities for flights from Mineralnye Vody to Beijing and from Ufa to Urumqi. The press service of S7 also reported to RBC about the upcoming resumption of flights to China. Utair also expects to start flights to China, now this carrier is completing its accreditation, a source familiar with the airline's plans said.

Air transportation between Russia and China is regulated by an intergovernmental agreement on air traffic. It assumes the observance of the principle of parity of regular flights, which allows maintaining the balance of carrying capacities and frequencies between Russian and Chinese carriers, notes independent aviation expert Grigory Pomerantsev. In order to increase the number of flights between countries in the face of restrictions on the flights of some Russian aircraft to China, Opora Rossii proposes to move away from the parity rule and “invite Chinese airlines to carry out more active flights” to Russia, Kinder says.

Airlines announce problems with flights to China Business

But such a decision is not supported by the Association of Air Transport Operators (AEVT), which includes 22 Russian companies, including Aeroflot, S7, Ural Airlines and Utair. This follows from the appeal of AEVT President Vladimir Tasun, sent on February 3 to the head of the Ministry of Transport, Vitaly Savelyev. In it, Tasun listed the problematic issues with the resumption of flights by Russian carriers to China and proposed holding face-to-face consultations with the aviation authorities of the two countries with the participation of the Russian Foreign Ministry.

If the risks of the arrest of Russian airlines' aircraft in China at the request of foreign leasing companies remain in place, and the deregistration of aircraft in Bermuda and Ireland does not end in the coming months, the share of carriers from Russia in meeting the growing demand for flights to China in comparison with companies from this country is likely to decline, Pomerantsev believes. At the same time, Chinese airlines can request charter flights in excess of the regular frequencies provided for by the parity, the expert notes. According to him, due to face-to-face negotiations between the authorities of the two countries, Russian carriers will have the opportunity to lobby their own interests, since in this format officials will be able to quickly clarify the position of airline representatives present on the sidelines of the meeting.

“The issue of parity is the subject of separate agreements between the aviation authorities. We recommend clarifying this issue with the Ministry of Transport of Russia, which is authorized to consult with foreign partners on issues of granting commercial rights to airlines, ”says a representative of the Federal Air Transport Agency. RBC sent inquiries to the press services of the Ministry of Transport, the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, the AEVT and the largest Russian airlines.