Experts predict a new wave of the COVID-19 pandemic in Bashkiria

The beginning of the rise in the incidence is provoked by the spread of three sub-variants of CORONAVIRUS

A new wave of the covid-19 pandemic begins in Bashkiria . This is evidenced by the growing incidence rates in the region, experts interviewed by RBC Ufa said. The new rise in the number of cases is due to the spread of strains of coronavirus BA.4 and BA.5, as well as a subvariant known as "centaur".

More contagious, less deadly

According to Vladimir Bolibok, an immunologist-allergist, the BA.4 and BA.5 strains were brought to RUSSIA from Europe and began to be typed at the end of the previous wave of the pandemic in February and March 2022. Now they occupy the bulk of detected cases in the country.

“A new Indian sub-variant, which is called “centaur”, is also sometimes distinguished, but so far extremely rarely. And it is not clear whether it will force BA.4 and BA.5 out of circulation,” Bolibok said.

According to the expert, the outbreak of the pandemic wave will be less deadly than the previous ones. A more gradual increase in incidence is also expected.

“You shouldn’t expect any sharp bursts. There are two reasons for this. The first is that a huge number of Russians were ill in February-March with “omicron”. In some part, antibodies persist for a long time - a year or more. In some part of the population, antibodies persist for six months, after which the titer immediately drops. That is, now there is a layer of non-immune people. Accordingly, BA.4 and BA.5 infect them. The second reason is that we have now reduced the level of testing. Compared to winter, the number of PCR tests has fallen sharply. If widespread testing resumes, accordingly, we will see an increase in cases, ”said Volodymyr Bolibok.

The expert believes that now the most important indicator is the number of hospitalizations. And while it remains stable. Across the country in June and July, the number of hospitalized remained at the level of about 1 thousand people a day. In Bashkiria, 32 patients were hospitalized on July 14, 16 on July 17, 30 on July 21, and 11 on July 25.

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“The current “omicron” is tolerated quite easily. It causes an outpatient course of the disease. The virus itself rarely causes any complications in the form of pneumonia. Basically, we are talking about the fact that the current version of the coronavirus infection can exacerbate a person’s chronic diseases, with which a person is already hospitalized,” Bolibok said.

The DOCTOR also noted that strains BA.4 and BA.5 are more contagious, but less virulent, that is, they are more easily transmitted from person to person, but less likely to cause a severe course of the disease.

The peak will come in September

HEAD of the Department of Propaedeutics of Internal Diseases of the Belarusian State Medical University, Professor Naufal Zagidullin told RBC Ufa that the current, seventh wave of the pandemic has already begun de facto. Its peak is expected in early September, and the end - in October, the expert says.

“The previous option, “omicron”, was quite mild and in fact we had two waves of this strain - in February and May-June, but practically did not feel it, since the course was quite mild with a low risk of hospitalization. The new version called “centaur” (variant 2.75) is, unfortunately, heavier and is a combination of the delta, which was in 2021, and the “omicron”. Its incubation period is three to five days, it is characterized by a higher temperature up to 38 degrees, dry cough, muscle weakness, etc. The incidence will increase by the end of August as vacationers and children return,” Zagidullin said.

One person can infect ten

Rafael Yapparov, chief physician of the Republican Center for the Prevention and Control of AIDS and Infectious Diseases, also speaks about the high contagiousness of new varieties of the virus. In a conversation with RBC Ufa, he noted that there is a clear upward trend in the incidence in the region. This is not least due to the ability of COVID-19 to rapidly infect large groups of people.

“Statistics don't lie. We are seeing an increase in the number of cases on a daily basis, including outpatients and inpatients. Stationary - not as fast as before. Now virologists are talking about three new strains of coronavirus, including the “centaur”. It has been proven to have a higher contagiousness. The number of infections that comes from contact with one person is quite large and reaches 10-14 cases,” Yapparov said.

According to the expert, the course of the disease in most cases is not as severe as at the beginning of the pandemic. At the same time, the risk of a severe course of the disease is higher in people with chronic diseases, the elderly and patients with a weakened immune system.

“Now we need to take all steps to prevent the disease. No one guarantees 100% that you will not get sick if you get vaccinated. I have always said that vaccination does not completely protect against disease. It protects against death and a severe course of the disease, ”said Yapparov.

According to the operational headquarters of the republic, 63 new cases of coronavirus infection have been detected in Bashkiria over the past day. A day earlier, 61 new patients were registered. On July 26, 60 people fell ill. The total number of infected since the beginning of the pandemic in the region has reached 291.8 thousand people. 285.6 thousand patients have recovered.

As RBC Ufa reported, earlier the chief epidemiologist of Bashkiria, Azat Mukhametzyanov, predicted the start of a new wave of the coronavirus pandemic this fall.